If you are out of the fantasy football playoffs, it is officially prop season. Player props are a great way to transition from fantasy to sports betting. PFF's player props tool is the only place where you control both number and price, which guarantees your expected value for each prop placed.
Written picks have done well based on this tool, going 79-51 as we head into the main Sunday slate of Week 16. This record is based on grading against the closing line number. One-unit wagers have profited 22.7 units to start the season when minus-priced props are set to win one unit and plus-money props risk one unit.
Only two games have a total above 50 on this Sunday slate of NFL action. The Atlanta Falcons versus the Kansas City Chiefs could be a wild one from a props perspective, and the Tennessee Titans versus the Green Bay Packers could see plenty of scoring opportunities despite some weather concerns.
There are some lower totals that could also offer soft pricing on player props, but the majority of games fit well within the mean of 47-49. There are very few weather concerns, with the highest wind taking place in the Kansas City and Green Bay game. Temperatures are giving playable conditions, with potential snow occurring only in Green Bay.
Let’s dive into the best player props to make as we head into the main slate of Week 16. If you would like to hear a full discussion of all player props for this Sunday’s slate, make sure to listen to the PFF Daily Betting podcast.
Baker Mayfield OVER 9.5 Rushing Yards
There are a number of reasons to like Baker Mayfield’s over rushing yardage prop, not the least of which being that more than half of his wide receivers were just placed on the COVID-19 list. This should be even more of a ground-and-pound attack from the Browns than we first expected.