Player prop unders hit at a 55% rate between 2017 and 2019. Overs rebounded in Week 15, however, with 50.2% of props going over their posted number.
The closing weeks of the season have bounced back and forth, with no clear lean in either direction from a macro perspective. Nine of the 15 games played in Week 15 have gone over, which once again provides a signal for player props.
|Week||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
The percentage of props going under now sits at 53.05% for the season. At a macro level, it appears as though passing attempts are down based on expectation, but a higher percentage of those attempts are completed. Passing touchdowns lean toward the over, but this is a spot to watch for heavy juice shaded to one side or the other. All yardage-related props continue to go under at a higher rate, which makes them great to target late in the season. This is especially true of rushing yardage props when usage looks to be split for a timeshare between two or more backs.
|Prop Category||Percentage of Under Wins||Percentage of Over Wins|
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing our player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of each prop bet's expected value.
It is decidedly time for a heat check, as my written plays went 5-0 in Week 15. This brings my year-to-date written prop record to 76-51-1 for +19.7 units.
We are hitting the point of the season where usage is better understood, and we are now looking for mispriced lines and situations that have moved too much to one side based on recency bias. There are also situations where players are returning from injury, yet we don't fully understand how they factor into their respective offenses, making these valuable opportunities to target.
The betting market is buying into a smash spot for the Pittsburgh Steelers, as we have pushed from an opening 11.5-point spread out to 14.5. Points could be few and far between in this one, though. This, after all, is a matchup between our second- and third-worst-ranked offensive units, and it is our lowest total of the Week 15 slate.