Our commiserations to those who now find themselves on the outside looking in at the fantasy football playoffs, but all is not lost, as NFL Week 15 officially marks the start of prop season.
Player prop bets are a great way to transition from fantasy to sports betting, and PFF's player props tool is the only place where you can control both number and price to guarantee the expected value for each prop placed.
We've been using the tool to power our written picks all season, and they've gone 73-51 as we head into the main Sunday slate of Week 15. This record is based on grading against the closing line number. One-unit wagers have profited 16.6 units to start the season when minus-priced props are set to win one unit and plus-money props risk one unit.
Game totals continue to trend down, as the mean this week is the fourth-lowest of 2020. Outside of the weather concerns in Week 8, this is the lowest total outside of the first two weeks of the season.
The range is once again quite tight for Week 15, as few games offer the top-end range we have seen in previous weeks. The highest total on the main slate sits at 51.5, which is lower than we have seen over the past few weeks.
Let’s dive into the best player props to make as we head into the main slate of Week 15. If you would like to hear a full discussion of all player props for this Sunday’s slate, make sure to listen to the PFF Daily Betting podcast.
Lamar Jackson over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
The Baltimore Ravens appear to be rounding into form offensively at just the right time. They are in a huge leverage spot this weekend, with an 88.9% implied win probability, and a win would increase their playoff chances to 91%.
It wouldn’t be a surprise to see a near-perfect performance from Jackson, who is facing off against the Jacksonville Jaguars, the second-worst defense in the NFL according to our opponent-adjusted grades.