NFL Anytime Touchdown Bets: De'Von Achane, D'Andre Swift among best Week 11 bets

2T1XR71 Philadelphia Eagles running back D'Andre Swift (0) celebrates his touchdown with center Jason Kelce (62) and wide receiver Olamide Zaccheaus (13) during the second quarter of an NFL football game, Sunday, Oct. 15, 2023, in East Rutherford NJ. TheJets defeated the Eagles 20-14. (AP Photo/Rich Schultz)

• RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins: No running back was more dominant than De’Von Achane over the early parts of the season, as he led the NFL by far in yards per carry, EPA per rush and rushing yards over expected when he was fully healthy.

• RB D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles: We can expect the Eagles to lean on their ground game in Week 11, with Swift getting the ball early and often, especially in the red zone. Swift has the third-most carries inside the opponents' 10-yard line this season. 

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TE Jake Ferguson, Dallas Cowboys

The Cowboys tight end leads the league in both red zone targets and targets inside the opponents' 10-yard line.

• Despite their success against slot receivers, the Carolina Panthers have been dreadful against tight ends, ranking bottom-10 in PFF coverage grade, expected points added (EPA) allowed per target and success rate allowed on targets to tight ends. 

• The Cowboys should make their way into the red zone often, as the lowly Carolina Panthers rank bottom-five in nearly all defensive efficiency metrics. Dallas' 27-point team total is one of the highest on the slate, and Ferguson has the role and matchup that makes him an appealing play for an anytime touchdown.


RB De’Von Achane, Miami Dolphins

• No running back was more dominant than De’Von Achane over the early parts of the season, as he led the NFL by far in yards per carry, EPA per rush and rushing yards over expected when he was fully healthy.

• The Dolphins are set to welcome Achane back from injury just in time for a matchup against a Las Vegas Raiders defense that ranks bottom-five in yards allowed per carry and success rate allowed to running backs. The Dolphins are currently 13.5-point favorites, which should mean plenty of points and rushing opportunities for the rookie running back.

• Despite the terrific spot for Achane, the market is uncertain of his role, driving his pricing low. But given how the team took the extra-cautious route of placing Achane on IR, there’s little reason to think he won’t step into the 1b role, which had him playing over 55% of the snaps in the few weeks before he suffered the injury.

• Raheem Mostert is dealing with nagging knee and ankle issues himself, and he surely won’t see an alpha 75%-plus share in this game, leaving plenty of room for Achane to get some run.


RB D'Andre Swift, Philadelphia Eagles

• The Kansas City Chiefs are one the biggest run-funnel teams in the league, as it is far easier to run against them than pass against them.

• The Eagles have some of the most variant run-pass splits in the league, as they tailor their game plan for the specific opponent. 

• As such, we can expect the Eagles to lean on their ground game in Week 11, with Swift getting the ball early and often, especially in the red zone. Swift has the third-most carries inside the opponents' 10-yard line this season. 

• Further elevating this spot for Swift is his role as a pass-catcher in the red zone, where Swift has earned a target on 25% of his routes. Attached to a terrific offense and in a good matchup where he should see volume, Swift has multiple ways to score in this MNF showdown.  

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