Betting News & Analysis

Monday Night Football: Buffalo Bills-Cincinnati Bengals betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

Chicago, Illinois, USA; Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen (17) runs for yardage in the first half against the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field. Buffalo defeated Chicago 35-13. Mandatory Credit: Jamie Sabau-USA TODAY Sports

  • Bet the over: Both teams perform well from a scripted play perspective, especially on passes; therefore, a few early chunk plays will be all this game needs to go over. 
  • Bet Josh Allen over 22.5 completions (-101): In a back-and-forth affair against a defense focused on keeping him in the pocket, Allen should provide enough accurate throws underneath to easily go over this prop number. 
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes

Let’s dive into the best bets for this AFC showdown between two of the best teams in the NFL when the Buffalo Bills travel to the jungle to take on the Cincinnati Bengals

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME LINES

Cincinnati continues to perform above betting market expectation with the best record against the spread (ATS) of any team this season. Bettors seem unfettered, as the lookahead spread (+2.5) dropped to +1 before finding some Bills backers and moving to +1.5 as we move toward kickoff.  

This fits with PFF’s modeling of the spread, as Greenline and our play-by-play simulation finds consensus with the current market. Buffalo makes sense as a favorite, and the highest number of simulations have them winning by three points. It sets up as a game that will come down to the final possession, as PFF’s first- and third-graded quarterback hold a distinct advantage over the opposing defenses. 

We can really attack this narrative through the total, as both PFF Greenline and the play-by-play simulation find value on the game going over 49.5 points. The injury situations for both teams appear to favor the offenses — La’el Collins‘ absence is the only prolific offensive player from either team missing from this game.  

Both teams perform well from a scripted play perspective, especially on passes, and a few early chunk plays will be all this game needs to go over. 

Monday Night Football Best Bets:

Bet: Over 49.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Playable to: -115

Click here to place bets at BetMGM


PLAYER PROPS

Josh Allen O22.5 Completions (-101)

Cincinnati isn’t known as a defensive standout, as it ranks 13th in PFF opponent-adjusted grade. They excel in limiting big plays in both the passing and running game, allowing the third-lowest yards after catch per reception of any defense in football. If the Bills are going to move the ball, it's going to take an efficient performance from Allen, who is methodically moving the chains on a number of pass attempts.  

Allen has performed poorly going over his completion number this season, with a 5-8 record against the closing number. He hasn’t gone over this number since Week 12, but this week's game script points in the correct direction. In a back-and-forth affair against a defense focused on keeping him in the pocket, Allen should provide enough accurate throws underneath to easily go over this prop number. 

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ANYTIME TD BETS (pricing per BetMGM compared to PFF's play-by-play simulation)
Player BetMGM Price Implied Probability Simulation Probability Value Difference
Stefon Diggs 100 50.0% 45.3% -4.7%
Joe Mixon 100 50.0% 44.7% -5.3%
Ja'Marr Chase 100 50.0% 35.3% -14.7%
Tee Higgins 140 41.7% 31.6% -10.1%
Devin Singletary 150 40.0% 46.8% 6.8%
Gabriel Davis 175 36.4% 42.2% 5.9%
Tyler Boyd 180 35.7% 25.0% -10.7%
Josh Allen 190 34.5% 28.0% -6.5%
Dawson Knox 225 30.8% 31.1% 0.4%
Isaiah McKenzie 230 30.3% 30.1% -0.2%
James Cook 230 30.3% 29.9% -0.4%
Hayden Hurst 240 29.4% 6.5% -22.9%
Trenton Irwin 290 25.6% 16.4% -9.2%
Joe Burrow 290 25.6% 22.0% -3.7%
Samaje Perine 350 22.2% 20.0% -2.2%
Mitchell Wilcox 500 16.7% 15.3% -1.3%
Nyheim Hines 550 15.4% 13.0% -2.4%
Cole Beasley 550 15.4% 9.6% -5.8%
Quintin Morris 650 13.3% 5.5% -7.8%
Khalil Shakir 700 12.5% 4.8% -7.7%
Trayveon Williams 1100 8.3% 8.5% 0.2%
Stanley Morgan Jr. 1600 5.9% 5.4% -0.5%
Devin Asiasi 1800 5.3% 4.9% -0.4%

Bet: Devin Singletary +185

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