- Bet the over: Both teams perform well from a scripted play perspective, especially on passes; therefore, a few early chunk plays will be all this game needs to go over.
- Bet Josh Allen over 22.5 completions (-101): In a back-and-forth affair against a defense focused on keeping him in the pocket, Allen should provide enough accurate throws underneath to easily go over this prop number.
Estimated reading time: 4 minutes
Let’s dive into the best bets for this AFC showdown between two of the best teams in the NFL when the Buffalo Bills travel to the jungle to take on the Cincinnati Bengals.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME LINES
Cincinnati continues to perform above betting market expectation with the best record against the spread (ATS) of any team this season. Bettors seem unfettered, as the lookahead spread (+2.5) dropped to +1 before finding some Bills backers and moving to +1.5 as we move toward kickoff.
This fits with PFF’s modeling of the spread, as Greenline and our play-by-play simulation finds consensus with the current market. Buffalo makes sense as a favorite, and the highest number of simulations have them winning by three points. It sets up as a game that will come down to the final possession, as PFF’s first- and third-graded quarterback hold a distinct advantage over the opposing defenses.
We can really attack this narrative through the total, as both PFF Greenline and the play-by-play simulation find value on the game going over 49.5 points. The injury situations for both teams appear to favor the offenses — La’el Collins‘ absence is the only prolific offensive player from either team missing from this game.
Both teams perform well from a scripted play perspective, especially on passes, and a few early chunk plays will be all this game needs to go over.
Monday Night Football Best Bets:
Bet: Over 49.5 (-110, BetMGM)
Playable to: -115
Click here to place bets at BetMGM
PLAYER PROPS
Josh Allen O22.5 Completions (-101)
Cincinnati isn’t known as a defensive standout, as it ranks 13th in PFF opponent-adjusted grade. They excel in limiting big plays in both the passing and running game, allowing the third-lowest yards after catch per reception of any defense in football. If the Bills are going to move the ball, it's going to take an efficient performance from Allen, who is methodically moving the chains on a number of pass attempts.
Allen has performed poorly going over his completion number this season, with a 5-8 record against the closing number. He hasn’t gone over this number since Week 12, but this week's game script points in the correct direction. In a back-and-forth affair against a defense focused on keeping him in the pocket, Allen should provide enough accurate throws underneath to easily go over this prop number.
MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL ANYTIME TD BETS (pricing per BetMGM compared to PFF's play-by-play simulation)
| Player | BetMGM Price | Implied Probability | Simulation Probability | Value Difference |
| Stefon Diggs | 100 | 50.0% | 45.3% | -4.7% |
| Joe Mixon | 100 | 50.0% | 44.7% | -5.3% |
| Ja'Marr Chase | 100 | 50.0% | 35.3% | -14.7% |
| Tee Higgins | 140 | 41.7% | 31.6% | -10.1% |
| Devin Singletary | 150 | 40.0% | 46.8% | 6.8% |
| Gabriel Davis | 175 | 36.4% | 42.2% | 5.9% |
| Tyler Boyd | 180 | 35.7% | 25.0% | -10.7% |
| Josh Allen | 190 | 34.5% | 28.0% | -6.5% |
| Dawson Knox | 225 | 30.8% | 31.1% | 0.4% |
| Isaiah McKenzie | 230 | 30.3% | 30.1% | -0.2% |
| James Cook | 230 | 30.3% | 29.9% | -0.4% |
| Hayden Hurst | 240 | 29.4% | 6.5% | -22.9% |
| Trenton Irwin | 290 | 25.6% | 16.4% | -9.2% |
| Joe Burrow | 290 | 25.6% | 22.0% | -3.7% |
| Samaje Perine | 350 | 22.2% | 20.0% | -2.2% |
| Mitchell Wilcox | 500 | 16.7% | 15.3% | -1.3% |
| Nyheim Hines | 550 | 15.4% | 13.0% | -2.4% |
| Cole Beasley | 550 | 15.4% | 9.6% | -5.8% |
| Quintin Morris | 650 | 13.3% | 5.5% | -7.8% |
| Khalil Shakir | 700 | 12.5% | 4.8% | -7.7% |
| Trayveon Williams | 1100 | 8.3% | 8.5% | 0.2% |
| Stanley Morgan Jr. | 1600 | 5.9% | 5.4% | -0.5% |
| Devin Asiasi | 1800 | 5.3% | 4.9% | -0.4% |
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