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NFL Betting: Mismatches to target for each NFL divisional round playoff game

Inglewood, California, USA; Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce (87) celebrates against the Los Angeles Chargers in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports

  • Travis Kelce continues to be a matchup nightmare: One touchdown seems likely for Kelce, but what about two?
  • The Philadelphia Eagles‘ advantage that can be leveraged for a parlay: Philadelphia holds a mismatch against the New York Giants in nearly every category which opens the door for a likely parlay.
  • Shootout in Buffalo: The Cincinnati Bengals and Buffalo Bills bring a lot of firepower on offense, but one wide receiver holds the advantage against all others.
Estimated reading time: 6 minutes

Even as the playing field narrows down on divisional round weekend, there are still a number of mismatches that can be leveraged to place profitable bets. Let's take a look at the most notable: 

Travis Kelce vs. Jacksonville Jaguars safeties and linebackers

Kelce’s dominance at the tight position creates mismatches against most opponents, and the Jaguars' defense is no different. The Jags’ top coverage defender, Tyson Campbell (81.7 coverage grade), doesn’t typically leave his right corner spot, leaving a combination of sub-par linebackers and safeties to handle the league’s top receiving tight end.

Travis Kelce’s receiving threat:
Kelce’s receiving Receiving yards (TE ranks) Receptions (TE ranks) Touchdowns (TE ranks)
In the Red Zone 102 (1st) 19 (1st) 10 (1st)
Vs. Single coverage 455 (1st) 39 (1st) 7 (1st)
Vs. Zone coverage 798 (1st) 59 (2nd) 1 (T-7th)

The Jaguars’ other top coverage defender is safety Andre Cisco, who typically remains in a deep safety role and has only played 19 single coverage snaps all season. All other Jacksonville coverage defenders rank inside the bottom half of their positions in crucial coverage stats, making for a significant mismatch against the Kansas City Chiefs’ top receiving weapon.

Jaguars linebackers and safeties in coverage:
Jacksonville’s coverage defenders Coverage grade (position rank) Receiving yards per coverage snap (position rank) Receiving touchdowns allowed (position rank)
Devin Lloyd 37.1 (82nd) 1.49 (T-88th) 4 (T-3rd)
Chad Muma 40.2 (80th) 1.15 (63rd) 2 (T-14th)
Foyesade Oluokun 67.1 (T-29th) 1.06 (55th) 2 (T-14th)
Rayshawn Jenkins 47.5 (87th) 0.79 (T-85th) 1 (T-62nd)
Andre Cisco 69.1 (T-35th) 0.29 (9th) 2 (T-44th)

BET: Travis Kelce two or more touchdowns (3.60 on BET MGM): Kelce’s 31 targets in the red zone were the most in the NFL this season, as were his 10 receiving touchdowns and 12 receiving first downs in that area of the field.

Philadelphia Eagles vs. New York Giants

The Eagles are clear favorites entering this week’s matchup, which is reflected by the betting market. For those looking to parlay a potential Eagles win into a favorable return, looking for the appropriate mismatch to target can help.


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