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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
Jared Goff takes advantage of the Chicago Bears‘ continued struggles in coverage
We’re once again leaning into perfect coverage rates — the key factor behind last week’s 21-1 same-game parlay hit. A 2022 PFF study highlighted how coverage operates as a weak-link system: one breakdown can turn the league’s worst offense into its best in an instant.
The Lions struggled offensively in Week 1, but they now face a far softer matchup in Chicago. The Bears posted just a 14% perfect coverage rate against Minnesota and finished last season as the league’s worst team in that metric down the stretch, which was a major reason for their pass defense issues.
While Goff’s 2024 EPA numbers were inflated under Ben Johnson, he still finished second in EPA per play when not facing perfect coverage and showed one of the league’s largest drop-offs when defenses executed perfectly. Johnson’s scheme also forced coverage mistakes at a top-five rate last year, and while that may not sustain all season, this matchup — especially if Chicago is down starters — sets up well for a repeat.
Goff should have a chance to exploit the Bears secondary with efficiency. That opens the door for some intriguing SGP angles if Detroit opts for a low-volume, high-success passing script.
The Pittsburgh Steelers pass rush gets to Seattle Seahawks QB Sam Darnold
Despite surrendering 32 points to the Jets last week, the Steelers’ defense created disruption on 27% of pass plays, the third-highest rate in Week 1.
That could spell trouble for a Seattle offensive line that struggled against San Francisco, allowing a 26% disruption pressure rate and seeing four of five starters post below-average PFF grades.
Jets quarterback Fields relied on his legs last week, but that may not be an option for Sam Darnold and the Seahawks.
Seattle doesn’t have an Armand Membou, who posted the highest grade among offensive tackles last week while containing T.J. Watt. Replicating that kind of outing seems unlikely, given the Seahawks’ current offensive line issues.
This level of pressure disruption is especially impactful for a quarterback like Darnold, who graded among the league’s worst under pressure last season but excelled when kept clean.
Given the matchup, Pittsburgh’s pass rush should cause problems early and often. Darnold unders, Steelers sack props and same-game parlays built around a dominant defensive performance are all worth targeting.
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