NFL Week 1 same-game parlays

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Same-game parlays (SGPs) let you combine multiple bets from a single game into one ticket, increasing the potential payout if your game script hits. Our SGP picks are built around data-driven narratives — how a matchup is likely to unfold, which players are best positioned to benefit and where the edges lie.

This week, we’re also leaning on the new PFF Player Prop Tool, available exclusively in the PFF app for PFF+ members. It highlights the props with the highest probability of success, surfaces matchup insights that NFL teams themselves track and syncs with sportsbooks in real time, so you always know where the best number is.

Here are our top SGP picks for Week 1, each tied to a clear story the data suggests could play out.

QB Russell Wilson and Darius Slayton dominate Washington Commanders Single Coverage in an upset win

The Commanders closed last season playing one of the league’s highest rates of single coverage, finishing in the top three overall. That trend carried into the preseason, where they lined up in single coverage more than any other team.

Russell Wilson, meanwhile, did his best work against single coverage in 2024. He ranked fourth in PFF grade and sixth in EPA per play in those situations, largely fueled by his aggressiveness downfield — no quarterback threw deep more often or posted a higher average depth of target (16 yards) against single coverage.

So, if Washington stays true to form, Wilson should have plenty of chances to attack vertically again in Week 1.

Malik Nabers is an obvious candidate for success, but that upside is already priced into markets. A sneakier way to gain exposure is through Darius Slayton, who runs one of the deepest route trees in the NFL and ranked among the league’s best at creating separation against single coverage.

With Russell Wilson uncorking deep shots this season, there’s a clear path for Slayton’s underlying numbers to translate into real production — and this matchup against Washington’s single-heavy coverage looks like the perfect spot for it.

Same-game parlay build: 130-1

QB Russell Wilson: 270+ passing yards
WR Darius Slayton: 100+ receiving yards
New York Giants: Moneyline

Marvin Mims emerges as the Denver Broncos‘ WR2

Marvin Mims flashed terrific underlying numbers last season, earning targets at an elite rate and producing a strong yards per route run, fueled largely by some of the best yards after catch efficiency in the league.

Where he lagged was in opportunity. Stuck in a heavy rotation behind Courtland Sutton, Mims simply didn’t run enough routes to fully realize his efficiency. But with Devaughn Vele traded and Mims logging routes on 25 of 27 dropbacks with the starters this preseason, it looks increasingly likely he has secured the full WR2 role. That makes the 36.5-yard line — still anchored to last year’s usage — look like a clear misprice.

The Broncos’ ferocious defense also sets the table here, facing a Titans offense led by a rookie in his first start. If Tennessee struggles to sustain drives, Denver should benefit from extra play volume, giving Bo Nix plenty of chances to feed Mims and push well past his posted total.

Same-game parlay build: 41-1

QB Bo Nix: 300+ passing yards
WR Marvin Mims: 100+ receiving yards

Raiders QB Geno Smith poised to carve up an overrated Patriots pass defense

This could have easily made its way into our matchup article, but it’s worth highlighting again: the Patriots finished last season dead last in both perfect coverage rate and disruption rate.

And while the unit has improved overall, they’ll likely be without star corner Christian Gonzalez, leaving a major void in the secondary. Rookie fourth-rounder Craig Woodson is set to start after the release of Jabrill Peppers, and there are still plenty of holes across this defense — particularly on the back end.

Geno Smith spent much of last season under constant disruption, but when kept clean, he was highly effective. Now, with an upgraded offensive line and a sneaky favorable passing matchup — especially if Christian Gonzalez is out — Smith should have the conditions to excel and put up meaningful numbers through the air.

There is, of course, some uncertainty around passing volume in this offense, but that’s exactly why we’re chasing the tail outcome. There’s plenty of room on the distribution where Las Vegas leans pass-heavy and Smith capitalizes against a vulnerable secondary.

Same-game parlay build: 21-1

QB Geno Smith: 300+ passing yards
Las Vegas Raiders: -4.5