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Over the years, PFF data scientists have conducted extensive studies to better understand and predict player performance. While many of these foundational works continue to shape discussions and influence analysis, the focus here is on identifying how those insights apply to specific weekly matchups and uncovering opportunities the betting market may have overlooked.
Some bets will align with traditional markets, while others will explore more niche options to ensure we leverage the most suitable markets for a given thesis or angle.
Drake Maye cooks the Cleveland Browns deep downfield
The Browns have been one of the NFL’s biggest pass funnels this season, with the third-largest gap in EPA between passing and rushing plays — meaning they’re far easier to throw against than run on.
Under Jim Schwartz, Cleveland’s defense has consistently forced opponents to attack downfield, which in turn has made it vulnerable to explosive plays. So far this season, the Browns have allowed the fifth most.
As PFF research shows, explosive plays are a key driver of scoring success. Drives without an explosive play rarely produce points.
This is exactly the area where Drake Maye has thrived, posting a historically strong deep-passing EPA so far this season. Under Maye, the Patriots have become one of the league’s most explosive passing offenses, ranking top five in explosive-pass rate.
In a matchup that should force Maye to throw both more often and deeper than usual, his passing yards over looks appealing — and his efficiency should remain high against this Browns defense.
Jordan Love set to take advantage of the Steelers‘ coverage mistakes
PFF studied the effects of perfect coverage on NFL offenses and found that a single coverage mistake can elevate an average offense to MVP-level production, while perfect coverage can make even strong offenses perform like the league’s worst.
That’s been a major issue for the Steelers this season, as they’ve forced perfect coverage at the lowest rate in the NFL — just 33% of the time.
Jordan Love, meanwhile, has faced slightly more perfect coverage than average but leads the league in EPA on plays with coverage mistakes, or when defenses fail to achieve perfect coverage. In a matchup where Pittsburgh’s perfect-coverage rate should remain low, Love is well-positioned to take advantage through the air.
Love’s passing overs, Packers spreads and same-game parlays built around his success against this Steelers defense all hold value this week.
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