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Examining Kansas City Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes' 2020 passing yardage prop

The Kansas City Chiefs made a couple of splashes over the past two weeks, signing Patrick Mahomes to a record-setting deal while taking care of an extension for Chris Jones. They are easily the most likely team to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl, and we have them repeating as champions over 20% of the time in our 2020 season simulation. The Chiefs are returning over 80% of their snaps and 20 of 22 starters from 2019 while boasting the league’s best head coach in Andy Reid.

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So, how can you exploit this information in the 2020 NFL betting market? First, the Chiefs’ win total (11.5, -125 to the over on FanDuel SportsBook) is a bit high — even with the knowledge that Reid has gone over his Vegas total in each of his seven seasons as the Chiefs' head coach. They are -390 to win the AFC West and -850 to make the AFC’s new seven-team format for the playoffs — stiff prices to lay. The Chiefs' Super Bowl future (+650 on FanDuel) is a value if you agree with us on their Super Bowl odds.

However, the prop we’re going to focus on today is the passing yardage prop for Mahomes. At Caesar’s, this number is 4549.5 yards (-110 to both sides), an average of just above 284 yards a game in a 16-game schedule (these props are voided if a full 16-game season is not played). Here's what we think about that number.

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