News & Analysis

Favorite NFL futures bets ahead of Week 10

Nov 1, 2020; Detroit, Michigan, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Philip Rivers (17) passes during the game against the Detroit Lions at Ford Field. Mandatory Credit: Tim Fuller-USA TODAY Sports

We had a decent week last week, with the Chiefs surviving against Carolina, and Tennessee and Miami winning close games.  We move on to week 10.  Here is the tale of the tape so far:

Editor's note: PFF's NFL & NCAA Betting Dashboards (PFF Greenline) offer PFF-exclusive insight on moneyline, against the spread and over/under picks for every NFL and FBS game in 2020. Subscribe to PFF ELITE to get access.

After Week 1

Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl: +550 after Week 1, now +350

Seattle Seahawks to win the NFC West and Super Bowl: +190 and +1400 after Week 1, now -210 and +1000

Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl: +2600 after Week 1, now +1000

Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South: +125 after Week 1, now -190

After Week 2

Green Bay Packers to win the NFC North: -140 after Week 2, now -750

Philadelphia Eagles to miss the playoffs: -170 after Week 2, now +250

Arizona Cardinals to make the playoffs: +104 after Week 2, now -160

After Week 3

Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win the NFC South: +100 after Week 3, now +185

New England Patriots to win the AFC East: +125 after Week 3, now +2100

After Week 4

Cleveland Browns to make the playoffs: -182 after Week 4, now -138

After Week 5

Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East: -125 after Week 5, now +850

After Week 6

Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North: -165 after Week 6, now unavailable (COVID-19 situation for Pittsburgh)

After Week 7

Washington Football Team to win the NFC East: +425 after Week 7, now +750

After Week 8

Miami Dolphins to make the playoffs: +184 after Week 8, now +124

Our futures bet after Week 9

Indianapolis Colts +114 to miss the playoffs

We give the Colts just a 47% chance to make the playoffs, as they are currently competing with Las Vegas, Miami and Cleveland — a team they have already lost to this year.

Having faced the second-easiest schedule in the NFL through nine weeks (and the easiest through eight weeks), the Colts — starting with Thursday Night Football against the Titans — have the 11th-most difficult schedule the rest of the way, while Las Vegas, Miami and Cleveland all have schedules that are easier than the average slate. While Titans -190 to win the AFC South still has value, as well, this is a way to buy into it at a plus price.

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