With the 2021 NFL season quickly approaching, sportsbooks are creating new opportunities for fans to make money betting on football.
One of FanDuel’s new promotions is a prime candidate for bettors to cash in. The Super Win Bonus promo states: “Place a $50+ bet on your favorite team to win Super Bowl LVI between Aug. 20 and Sept. 9 and get a $5 bonus in site credit for each regular-season game your team wins (max bonus $50).”
Pretty foolproof, right?
Here at PFF, we can use our 2021 NFL season simulations to help you make the most of promotions like this. Below are Fanduel’s listed Super Bowl odds for every team:
|Team||Super Bowl Odds on Fanduel|
|Kansas City Chiefs||+500|
|Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+650|
|Green Bay Packers||+1200|
|San Francisco 49ers||+1400|
|Los Angeles Rams||+1500|
|New Orleans Saints||+3000|
|Los Angeles Chargers||+3300|
|New England Patriots||+3700|
|Washington Football Team||+5000|
|New York Giants||+7000|
|Las Vegas Raiders||+7500|
|New York Jets||+12000|
Intuitively, the teams toward the top of the list have the best shot at reaching 10 wins and at least getting your $50 back in site credit. Calculating the expected profit for each team using 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season, we see some other value candidates emerge:
(Note: these exact numbers may have changed some since the article was written, but qualitatively they are equivalent.)
|Team||Super Bowl Odds||Average Profit with Bonus|
Our models are currently higher on Atlanta and Las Vegas than the betting market. Aside from Philadelphia and Houston, every team is a profitable bet under this promotion.
If you’re a more risk-averse bettor and want to maximize the chance you break even or profit, here are the teams with the highest probability of reaching 10 wins and therefore earning the full bonus:
|Team||Super Bowl Odds||Probability of Not Losing Money|