Betting News & Analysis

FanDuel promotion: Bet $50 on any team to win Super Bowl LVI and earn $5 bonuses for every regular-season win

Feb 7, 2021; Tampa, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Tom Brady (12) celebrates after beating the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV at Raymond James Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

With the 2021 NFL season quickly approaching, sportsbooks are creating new opportunities for fans to make money betting on football. 

One of FanDuel’s new promotions is a prime candidate for bettors to cash in. The Super Win Bonus promo states: “Place a $50+ bet on your favorite team to win Super Bowl LVI between Aug. 20 and Sept. 9 and get a $5 bonus in site credit for each regular-season game your team wins (max bonus $50).”

Pretty foolproof, right? 

Here at PFF, we can use our 2021 NFL season simulations to help you make the most of promotions like this. Below are Fanduel’s listed Super Bowl odds for every team:

Team Super Bowl Odds on Fanduel
Kansas City Chiefs +500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +650
Buffalo Bills +1200
Green Bay Packers +1200
Baltimore Ravens +1400
San Francisco 49ers +1400
Los Angeles Rams +1500
Cleveland Browns +1600
Seattle Seahawks +2000
Tennessee Titans +2500
Dallas Cowboys +2800
New Orleans Saints +3000
Indianapolis Colts +3000
Miami Dolphins +3200
Los Angeles Chargers +3300
New England Patriots +3700
Minnesota Vikings +4000
Denver Broncos +4100
Pittsburgh Steelers +4400
Arizona Cardinals +4800
Chicago Bears +5000
Washington Football Team +5000
Atlanta Falcons +6000
New York Giants +7000
Philadelphia Eagles +7500
Las Vegas Raiders +7500
Carolina Panthers +9000
New York Jets +12000
Cincinnati Bengals +12000
Jacksonville Jaguars +12000
Detroit Lions +18000
Houston Texans +25000

Intuitively, the teams toward the top of the list have the best shot at reaching 10 wins and at least getting your $50 back in site credit. Calculating the expected profit for each team using 10,000 simulations of the upcoming season, we see some other value candidates emerge:

(Note: these exact numbers may have changed some since the article was written, but qualitatively they are equivalent.)

Team Super Bowl Odds Average Profit with Bonus
LV +7500 107.37
ATL +6000 94.24
GB +1200 78.22
NYJ +12000 50.19
TB +650 49.86
CLE +1600 49.86
JAX +12000 49.30
TEN +2500 47.81
BUF +1200 46.63
CIN +12000 44.20
KC +500 39.43
SEA +2000 38.92
ARI +4800 31.83
CAR +9000 29.40
BAL +1400 27.40
WAS +5000 24.48
LA +1500 22.87
IND +3000 21.14
NO +3000 17.34
NYG +7000 16.50
CHI +5000 15.76
DAL +2800 13.24
MIN +4000 12.08
PIT +4400 9.31
LAC +3300 8.47
SF +1400 5.39
MIA +3200 5.34
NE +3700 1.18
DEN +4100 0.53
DET +18000 0.06
PHI +7500 -4.43
HOU +25000 -16.10

Our models are currently higher on Atlanta and Las Vegas than the betting market. Aside from Philadelphia and Houston, every team is a profitable bet under this promotion.

If you’re a more risk-averse bettor and want to maximize the chance you break even or profit, here are the teams with the highest probability of reaching 10 wins and therefore earning the full bonus:

Team Super Bowl Odds Probability of Not Losing Money
KC +500 0.824
TB +650 0.818
GB +1200 0.766
BUF +1200 0.700
CLE +1600 0.624
BAL +1400 0.563
TEN +2500 0.535
SEA +2000 0.514
LA +1500 0.488
LV +7500 0.464
ATL +6000 0.453
SF +1400 0.381
IND +3000 0.375
NO +3000 0.334
DAL +2800 0.326
ARI +4800 0.324
LAC +3300 0.303
MIN +4000 0.289
MIA +3200 0.275
JAX +12000 0.266
CAR +9000 0.255
WAS +5000 0.252
NYJ +12000 0.250
CIN +12000 0.237
PIT +4400 0.234
DEN +4100 0.227
NE +3700 0.225
NYG +7000 0.222
CHI +5000 0.216
PHI +7500 0.124
DET +18000 0.057
HOU +25000 0.052

 

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