Betting News & Analysis

Data-driven player prop picks for Week 16: Jamaal Williams, Kirk Cousins, J.K. Dobbins

Cleveland, Ohio, USA; Baltimore Ravens running back J.K. Dobbins (27) runs the ball against the Cleveland Browns during the second quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Scott Galvin-USA TODAY Sports

Jamaal Williams under 41.5 rushing yards: Jamaal Williams is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, 39th out of 46 qualifying running backs. He's also averaging -0.77 rushing yards over expected per carry, one of the worst marks in the league.

Kirk Cousins under 23.5 completions: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins ranks bottom-five in EPA per dropback against the blitz this season. The New York Giants blitz on 48.2% of passing plays, the highest rate in the NFL, so this could be a tough matchup for Cousins.

J.K. Dobbins over 56.5 rushing yards: Since Week 10, the Atlanta Falcons‘ run defense is 30th in success rate, having given up a 4.0-plus-yard rush on 47% of their plays.

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Estimated reading time: 2 mins

After having success giving out three player prop picks for quarterbacks and three player prop picks for running backs in separate articles, we are combining the best of those props into a single article from here on out.

The running back props finished up 7.2 units, and the quarterback props finished up 5.2 units. We hope to continue that success going forward.

BET: Jamaal Williams Under 41.5 Rushing Yards (-115 DraftKings; playable to 39.5)

Williams hasn’t been effective: Despite leading the league in rushing touchdowns, Lions running back Jamaal Williams is averaging 3.9 yards per carry, 39th out of 46 qualifying running backs. He's also averaging -0.77 rushing yards over expected per carry, one of the worst marks in the league.

BET: Kirk Cousins Under 23.5 Completions (-110 DraftKings; playable to -120)

Cousins struggles against the blitz: Vikings QB Kirk Cousins ranks bottom-five in EPA per dropback against the blitz this season. He also has the lowest completion percentage against the blitz at 52%.

The Giants blitz often: The New York Giants blitz on 48.2% of passing plays, the highest rate in the NFL. This could be a tough matchup for Cousins.

BET: J.K. Dobbins Over 56.5 Rushing Yards (-115 BetMGM; playable to 57.5)

Dobbins has been good since the QB change: J.K. Dobbins has been the Baltimore Ravens‘ best rusher since week 10, which is especially relevant with Tyler Huntley at quarterback.

The Falcons' run defense is leaky: Since week 10, the Atlanta Falcons‘ run defense is 30th in success rate, having given up a 4.0-plus-yard rush on 47% of their plays.

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