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Many NFL bettors start by looking at individual markets — like spreads, totals, teasers or props — and ask, “Which spread looks good?” or “What totals stand out this week?” This is a bottom-up approach, where you focus on specific bets first.
In this space, we’ll take a different approach. We’ll focus on one game each week and use a top-down strategy to break it down. This means starting with the bigger picture — how teams, players or trends are performing — and then finding the best ways to apply that information to different betting markets.
While some of our bets may focus on traditional markets, like spreads or totals, we’ll often explore other opportunities to maximize value.
Atlanta Falcons -6.5 vs. San Francisco 49ers
As always, we’ll start by examining the team fundamentals and how this matchup is priced, laying the foundation for the rest of our analysis.
The Falcons have quietly built one of the league’s most well-rounded profiles, pairing a surprisingly strong defense with an offense that, by the fundamentals, is outperforming even the 49ers.
Yet according to Inpredictable, which uses look-ahead lines to derive team tiers, the market hasn’t fully bought in. Atlanta’s defense is still rated at 0.0 — good for just 17th — while San Francisco holds a slightly better 0.5 rating, placing them 12th despite recent struggles.
However, that rating has simply not reflected how the 49ers have actually performed. Without Nick Bosa, the defense has allowed a 0.37 EPA per play and a 57% success rate, both of which rank in the bottom three in the NFL.
To make matters worse, they just lost Fred Warner, the league’s highest-graded defensive player. Accounting for those injuries, this is arguably the worst pass defense in the NFL right now — far from the 12th-best unit the market suggests.
Even from a fundamentals perspective, this looks like a clear value spot for the Falcons.
Matchup Angles
One of the key drivers behind Atlanta’s defensive success has been its blitz-heavy approach. The Falcons lead the NFL in blitz rate and generate pressure at the highest rate when blitzing. Their 4.9 yards allowed per dropback, second-best in the league, further supports the idea that this defense’s performance is sustainable.
More importantly for this matchup, Atlanta’s blitz success directly targets a clear weakness: Mac Jones’ struggles under pressure. Per Kyle Shanahan, Jones is expected to start — and he’s been among the league’s worst quarterbacks when blitzed this season, setting up a strong schematic edge for the Falcons.
Mac Jones has been one of the league’s worst quarterbacks against the blitz this season, as he has averaged -0.25 EPA per play, the second-worst figure in the league behind only Cam Ward. That’s a glaring concern against this Atlanta defense.
On the other side of the ball, Atlanta’s rushing attack should thrive, especially with Fred Warner out of the lineup. The 49ers' pass defense has also struggled significantly, consistently allowing teams to stay on schedule.
Without Nick Bosa, the 49ers have become one of the league’s worst defenses at keeping opponents off schedule — ranking in the bottom five in the percentage of plays where opposing offenses have stayed within structure.
So, with a strong run game to keep them ahead of the sticks, the Falcons are well-positioned to exploit this undermanned 49ers defense on both fronts.
While the effect isn’t massive, Michael Penix Jr. has been notably better when operating in structure — above average in-system, but below average when forced off script.
Against a 49ers defense that’s struggled to disrupt and is now severely depleted, Penix should have plenty of clean opportunities to operate efficiently.
From a fundamentals perspective, the Falcons appear to be the better team in this matchup. With San Francisco’s defense banged up and the market slow to adjust, we’re going back to the well — backing Atlanta against a 49ers team that’s not nearly as formidable as perception suggests.
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