Betting News & Analysis

Week 13 College Football Pick: Bet the Under in UTEP-UTSA

El Paso, Texas, USA; UTEP Miners running back Reynaldo Flores (3) celebrates after scoring a touchdown against the Boise State defense in the second half at Sun Bowl. Mandatory Credit: Ivan Pierre Aguirre-USA TODAY Sports

Bet UTEP-UTSA u56.5: A pair of run-heavy offenses and defenses that specialize in stopping the run are key ingredients for this under.

• UTSA's defense is top 30 in run efficiency allowed, top 20 in EPA/rush over the past month; UTEP allowing -0.186 EPA/rush over the past four games.

• In another likely UTSA blowout, potential abound for a number of double-digit play, time-consuming drives.

Last updated: Nov. 25, 10:35 a.m.

Estimated reading time: 2 mins

This is it. The end of the regular season. We go into the final week of the season with a 11-8 record for +2.24 units and a 10.74% ROI.

Last week’s bet won comfortably with Washington State controlling the game against Arizona. The Wildcats failed to move the ball with any conviction, leaving the Under 63.5 with a lot of room to spare.  

Best Bet: UTEP @ UTSA — Under 56.5 (-110 at BetMGM)

Bet Gameplan: Playable to 54.5

UTEP has the makeup of a perfect Under team: With a run-heavy offense that utilizes the whole clock and operates more on efficiency than explosiveness. The Miners' offense goes up against a UTSA defense that over the past month ranks in the top 30 in terms of run efficiency allowed and top 20 in EPA/play over the same period.

UTSA is the better team: And as 17-point favorites, it's encouraging the Roadrunners do not tend to run up the score beyond a reasonable level. In their two blowout wins over the past two weeks, they have scored a combined seven points in the fourth quarter.

The Roadrunners also have a run-heavy offense: Going up against a run defense that does not allow explosive plays (-0.186 EPA/play allowed over the past four weeks) and holds run games below 40% efficiency. This is likely to be another blowout UTSA victory, but there is potential for a lot of double-digit play, time-consuming drives. 

Best Bet: UTEP @ UTSA — Under 56.5


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