College Football Week 10 Best Bets: Back LSU to take down Alabama

2K5PK5D Baton Rouge, United States. 08th Oct, 2022. LSU Tigers quarterback Jayden Daniels (5) looks to pass against the Tennessee Volunteers, Saturday, Oct. 8, 2022, in Baton Rouge, Louisiana. Tennessee defeats LSU 40-13. (Kirk Meche/Image of Sport) Photo via Credit: Newscom/Alamy Live News

Bet the LSU Moneyline: The LSU offense is by far the most reliable unit on the field for this game. I am happy to buy the upside they offer in an underdog situation against an offense that has struggled against every team it has faced.

Marshall @ Appalachian State, Over 55.5: This total looks very low for a game that will see two well-rounded and potentially explosive offenses against two low-end coverage defenses.

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Estimated reading time: 2 minutes

It is Week 10 of the college football season, and now that we are firmly into the business end of the season, there are some excellent matchups that could go a long way to deciding the fate of those in and around the playoff picture.

Here are the best bets for Week 10. We start with the biggest game of the week — an SEC clash with everything to play for.

LSU @ Alabama: LSU Moneyline (+138 FanDuel)

Alabama enters this game as a three-point home favorite, but this is likely to be the program's toughest test since it got turned over by Texas early in the season.

That said, things have not been plain sailing for the Crimson Tide over the last few weeks. They gave Texas A&M a chance to beat them in a game that ended with a weird field-goal decision that, in large part, cost the Aggies any chance of victory. Then came the three-point win over Arkansas in a scrappy but explosive performance from Jalen Milroe, who completed just 10 passes for 238 yards and showed little to suggest Alabama had done much to improve offensively. They then trailed for the entire first half against Tennessee before the defense stepped up and shut out  QB Joe Milton and the Volunteers offense.

LSU may not be as defensively stout as the likes of Texas A&M, but they do field what is arguably the best offense in the country, with quarterback Jayden Daniels leading the nation in passing yards per attempt despite ranking bottom-10 in play-action usage.

Daniels' 8.5% big-time rate ranks fifth among all quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks. Leading receivers Malik Nabers (3.85) and Brian Thomas (2.89) rank first and 21st, respectively, in personnel-adjusted yards per route run.

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The rushing attack, which Daniels is a big part of himself, ranks fourth in schedule-adjusted yards per carry and can beat teams by itself when everything goes right.

The Tigers defense is susceptible to explosive plays, something Alabama excels at offensively, so there is a good case that the 60.5-point total is not high enough, given the explosive ability of both teams. However, this should be a fiercely contested match due to Alabama’s inability to put teams away.

The LSU Tigers have no such problems offensively, and while their defense is unlikely to hold Alabama down too much, the LSU offense is by far the most reliable unit on the field for this game. I am happy to buy the upside they offer in an underdog situation against an offense that has struggled against every team it has faced.


Marshall @ Appalachian State – Over 55.5 (-104 FanDuel)

Marshall is stumbling into this game after suffering back-to-back losses against James Madison and Coastal Carolina. The Thundering Herd looked particularly inefficient on offense over that stretch — as they have for most of the year — but the Appalachian State defense has been unable to slow anyone down this season.

That should continue here against a Marshall team that at least showed glimpses of offensive potential against the likes of North Carolina State and Old Dominion.

Running back Rasheen Ali is a scoring machine with multiple 150-plus-yard rushing games this season, which bodes well against an App State rush defense that ranks third-worst in my schedule-adjusted rush defense metric, one spot ahead of Marshall.

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Running back Nate Noel was expected to play a significant part in Appalachian State’s game against Southern Miss last week before getting just three carries, all in the first quarter. So, while it is hard to know how healthy he is, he is a big boost to this rushing offense if that was a precautionary return-game snap count — he looked healthy and got up just fine on his last carry, running off the field with no issues.

This total looks very low for a game that will see two well-rounded and potentially explosive offenses against two low-end coverage defenses. Better still, these defenses also allow the third- and fourth-highest rushing efficiency to opposing offenses when adjusted for scheduling this year.

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