After a 3-1 weekday slate last week, we are back to tackle the Week 3 college football weekday slate. Last week we saw Coastal Carolina and Boise State both cover the spread against their respective opponents, and the over hit in Boise State vs. UTEP. This week, we'll consider two games with opening lines and point totals.
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Opening lines provide plentiful opportunities to find betting value. These lines don’t last as long, considering there isn’t as much time to act on them before the games start. Here are some picks to help get you started on this weekday slate.
UCF Knights (-8) vs. Louisville Cardinals
Projection: Under 67.5
Cover Probability: 55.1%
UCF has started off the Gus Malzhan era with two wins against Boise State and Bethune Cookman. One of the biggest improvements so far from the Knights has been in their run defense, going from a 70.9 run defense grade in 2020 to a 92.3 so far this season. This will prove to be beneficial against a Louisville team that looks to establish their offensive presence on the ground. Dillion Gabriel and the UCF offense still haven’t found their groove in this new offensive system, but a 77.8 offensive grade is nothing to scoff at.