The Los Angeles Chargers travel to face the New England Patriots in Foxborough, Mass., on Sunday, Jan. 11, with kickoff set for 8:00 p.m. on NBC.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline and total using PFF's market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks through stable efficiency metrics and highlight the team-level advantages that could swing this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level grades that matter most on Sunday, with all data powered by PFF Premium Stats and betting projections.
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Click here to see PFF's data-backed bets for this game
Team Metrics
| Chargers | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: Overall | 10th | 13th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 10th | 9th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 22nd | 2nd |
| SOS Played | 16th | 32nd |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 68.9 | 65.5 |
| % Run Plays | 37.1% | 40.4% |
| % Pass Plays | 62.9% | 59.6% |
| EPA Per Run | -0.08 | -0.12 |
| EPA Per Pass | 0.02 | 0.27 |
QB Comparison
| Chargers | Patriots | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | J. Herbert | D. Maye |
| PFF Grade | 83.2 | 90.1 |
| Passer Rating Clean | 104.6 | 123.0 |
| Passer Rating Under Pressure | 74.4 | 90.4 |
| Big-Time Throw % | 3.41% | 4.08% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 2.32% | 2.67% |
| Power Rating | 6.5 | 5.5 |
| Power Rating Rank | 3rd | 4th |
Key Injuries: Chargers
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Harris | HB | Leg | IR | 81.4 | 89th |
| J. Alt | T | Leg | IR | 79.0 | 41st |
| O. Hampton | HB | Leg | Q | 77.4 | 38th |
| K. Williamson | S | Leg | Q | 73.4 | 129th |
| N. Reed | CB | Leg | IR | 71.9 | 105th |
| D. Jackson | CB | Leg | Q | 71.9 | 34th |
| J. Salyer | T | Leg | Q | 62.2 | 57th |
Key Injuries: Patriots
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| R. Spillane | LB | Leg | Q | 76.3 | 26th |
| H. Landry III | ED | Leg | Q | 70.9 | 56th |
| M. Hollins | WR | Torso | IR | 67.5 | 74th |
| K. Tonga | DI | Leg | Q | 67.2 | 53rd |
| T. Jennings | HB | Head | IR | 65.2 | 90th |
| A. Gibson | HB | Leg | IR | 55.1 | 124th |
| J. Wilson | G | Head | Q | 49.9 | 120th |
Betting insights: Spread
| Spread | Chargers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Market | +3.5 (-110) | -3.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | +2.9 | -2.9 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 55.8% | 44.2% |
| Break Even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | 3.5% | -8.2% |
| $$$% | 39% | 61% |
| Bets% | 34% | 66% |
Betting insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Chargers | Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| Market | +165 | -200 |
| PFF Projection | +153 | -152 |
| Implied Win Probability | 39.6% | 60.3% |
| Break Even | 37.7% | 66.6% |
| Value | 1.9% | -6.3% |
| $$$% | 23% | 77% |
| Bets% | 14% | 86% |
Betting insights: Total
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 46 (-110) | 46 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | 45.9 | 45.9 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 50.8% | 44.8% |
| Break Even | 50.1% | 50.1% |
| Value | 0.7% | -5.3% |
| $$$% | 48% | 52% |
| Bets% | 34% | 66% |
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