The Buffalo Bills travel to face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Jacksonville, Fla., on Sunday, Jan. 11, with kickoff set for 1:00 p.m. ET on CBS.
Below, we break down the spread, moneyline and total using PFF's market data, compare the two starting quarterbacks through stable efficiency metrics and highlight the team-level advantages that could swing this game.
This preview also dives into notable injuries, trench mismatches and unit-level grades that matter most on Sunday, with all data powered by PFF Premium Stats and betting projections.
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Click here to see PFF's data-backed bets for this game
Team Metrics
| Bills | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Power Rank: Overall | 3rd | 8th |
| Power Rank: Defense | 13th | 4th |
| Power Rank: Offense | 3rd | 12th |
| SOS Played | 29th | 24th |
| Avg Offensive Snaps | 67.1 | 69.2 |
| % Run Plays | 44.6% | 39.6% |
| % Pass Plays | 55.4% | 60.4% |
| EPA Per Run | 0.00 | -0.09 |
| EPA Per Pass | 0.20 | 0.06 |
QB Comparison
| Bills | Jaguars | |
|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | J. Allen | T. Lawrence |
| PFF Grade | 87.4 | 84.7 |
| Passer Rating Clean | 114.3 | 101.9 |
| Passer Rating Under Pressure | 71.0 | 66.4 |
| Big-Time Throw % | 3.93% | 4.22% |
| Turnover-Worthy Play % | 2.39% | 3.05% |
| Power Rating | 7.0 | 4.5 |
| Power Rating Rank | 1st | 8th |
Key Injuries: Bills
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| E. Oliver | DI | Leg | IR | 87.3 | 84th |
| J. Bosa | ED | Leg | Q | 79.3 | 19th |
| D. Jones | DI | Leg | Q | 75.5 | 37th |
| J. Poyer | S | Leg | Q | 67.7 | 81st |
| T. Johnson | HB | Leg | Q | 64.9 | 47th |
| M. Hairston | CB | Leg | OUT | 64.3 | 74th |
| D. Strong | CB | Head | IR | 62.9 | 141st |
Key Injuries: Jaguars
| Player | Pos | Injury | Status | Grade | Pos WAR Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Van Lanen | T | Leg | Q | 79.3 | 24th |
| J. Lewis | CB | Leg | IR | 67.2 | 47th |
| T. Hunter | WR | Leg | IR | 62.2 | 91st |
| P. Mekari | G | Torso | Q | 52.1 | 105th |
| J. Kiser | LB | Other | IR | 49.7 | 185th |
Betting insights: Spread
| Spread | Bills | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -1.5 (-110) | +1.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | -1.2 | +1.2 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Break Even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | -2.6% | -2.1% |
| $$$% | 48% | 52% |
| Bets% | 38% | 62% |
Betting insights: Moneyline
| Moneyline | Bills | Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| Market | -120 | +100 |
| PFF Projection | -102 | +103 |
| Implied Win Probability | 50.6% | 49.3% |
| Break Even | 54.5% | 50.0% |
| Value | -3.9% | -0.6% |
| $$$% | 58% | 42% |
| Bets% | 57% | 43% |
Betting insights: Total
| Total | Under | Over |
|---|---|---|
| Market | 51.5 (-110) | 51.5 (-110) |
| PFF Projection | 50.7 | 50.7 |
| Implied Cover Probability | 57.6% | 42.4% |
| Break Even | 52.4% | 52.4% |
| Value | 5.2% | -10.0% |
| $$$% | 39% | 61% |
| Bets% | 40% | 60% |
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