We’re coming down the final stretch of the 2021 college football season, and as the weather gets worse with each passing week, the forecast will continue to be an increasing factor in finding value on college football betting totals.
We’re not quite at the point where snow games are upon us, but they're quickly approaching. This should be a relatively clean week in terms of rain, and there isn’t a ton of wind to worry about as things stand, either.
With that out of the way, there are four totals that show value compared to my projections. My model is independent of the PFF Greenline tool, but the latter should always be your go-to when filling out your college football card every week. This week, however, there’s agreement between Greenline and my model on every play listed below.
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Florida Gators @ South Carolina Gamecocks UNDER 52.5
There’s no question that Florida defensive coordinator Todd Grantham is on the hot seat, so a dominant performance here against a very weak South Carolina offense will be needed if he wants to stick around. Coming into this contest, the Gamecocks have fielded one of the worst offenses in the Power Five by nearly every measure:
South Carolina Offense Ranks
|Team||EPA/Play||Passing Success Rate||Rushing Success Rate||Pass-Blocking Grade||Run-Blocking Grade|
Grantham’s coaching prowess definitely came into question after getting torn apart by LSU using the same “counter” running play over and over again in the Gators’ loss in Baton Rouge, but luckily for him, this South Carolina run game has been laughable all season long. In fact, the Gamecocks haven’t eclipsed four yards per carry against a single FBS opponent.
While Florida’s defense has plenty of room for improvement, one area of strength has been the pass rush, which ranks sixth in grade and 13th in win rate. Zach Carter, who plays all over the defensive line, has been the team's best pass rusher, but talented sophomore Gervon Dexter ranks first among all SEC interior defenders in pressure rate in his own right. The pass rush is one thing you can bank on from this Florida defense, and it looks primed for a dominant performance against South Carolina's offensive line.
On the other side, the Gators have had a lot of success running the ball, but the passing game has struggled, grading out at just 87th. South Carolina has fielded a formidable defense in an otherwise forgettable season and been very solid against the pass, ranking 18th in EPA per throw and 16th in pass-rush win rate. The Gamecocks also have the national leader in pass-rushing grade on the edge in Kingsley Enagbare, who could cause some bad decisions from a mistake-prone Florida quarterback duo.
Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.
Temple Owls @ East Carolina Pirates UNDER 54
Temple's offense has scored a grand total of 24 points in its past three games combined and currently sits at 118th in EPA per play. It’s really struggled through the air, with the passing game currently ranked 127th in grading. And the unit will now have to face an ECU secondary that ranks 30th in EPA per throw on the season. A major X-factor in the Pirates’ secondary has been cornerback Ja’Quan McMillan, who leads all FBS cornerbacks in coverage grade and has allowed just a 49.1% catch rate on 55 targets thrown his way.