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College Football Betting 2021: Conference Championship Week over/under value picks

Cincinnati, Ohio, USA; Cincinnati Bearcats quarterback Desmond Ridder (9) throws a pass against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane in the first half at Nippert Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports

It’s a loaded slate of college football matchups for Conference Championship Week, and the only thing that could make it more enjoyable is cashing some betting tickets at the end. While value is slim with so few games available, there are two totals that catch my eye as many of these teams try to put one last bullet point on their resume for the College Football Playoff.

I’ll go over those here, and be sure to check out PFF Greenline for additional value.

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Utah Utes vs. Oregon Ducks UNDER 59.5

Projection: 55.9

I project this total at 55.9, but if that wasn’t enough, this is one of PFF Greenline’s biggest edges of Conference Championship Weekend — with a 4.2% edge on the under. One of the main reasons is pace, with the Utes ranked 99th in seconds per play on offense and Oregon just ahead of them at 82nd. The two are even lower in possessions per game, ranking side-by-side at 125th and 126th in the nation. Seconds per play plays a big factor in these teams playing in low-possession games — as does each side’s tendency to run the ball. Both Utah and Oregon go to the ground game at about a 56% clip, which is in the top 40 in terms of rush rate. 

Utah’s blowout of Oregon is definitely fresh on the mind, considering the two squads have just a one-game gap between that contest and the upcoming Pac-12 Championship. The Utes won, 38-7, and headed into halftime with a 28-0 lead after Britain Covey housed a punt return with no time on the clock in the second quarter.

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