• Travis Etienne over 900 rushing yards (FanDuel): Etienne finished top-10 in yards per carry, missed tackles forced per attempt and breakaway rate in 2022, suggesting the intangibles are present for him to have another big year.
• D’Andre Swift over 525 rushing yards (FanDuel): Swift is a terrific back who quietly ranked third at his position in yards per carry and fourth in missed tackles forced per attempt last year.
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Best over bets
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars: Over 900 rushing yards (FanDuel)
• Travis Etienne missed his rookie season due to a preseason Lisfranc fracture, but he showed no signs of injury in 2022 — so much so that the Jaguars traded James Robinson away midseason, handing the backfield to Etienne.
• With Robinson in the fold over the first six weeks, Etienne peaked at a 51% snap share, which came in Robinson's last game with the team. Over his next eight games, he never fell below a 70% share. The Jaguars are evidently more than comfortable using him as a bell cow and giving him the lion's share of the carries.
• Not only will the third-year back get plenty of work in 2022, but he was also one of the most efficient rushers in the NFL last season, ranking first at the position in rushing yards over expected (RYOE). His early trajectory aligns with Nick Chubb and Derrick Henry, two of the game's best backs.
• Etienne finished top-10 in yards per carry, missed tackles forced per attempt and breakaway rate, suggesting the intangibles are present for him to have another big year.
• Further bolstering his case is that Jaguars currently boast the seventh-highest win total in the NFL, suggesting they will likely often be playing from ahead and within game scripts that will let them lean on Etienne to milk the clock away and generate yards.
Isiah Pacheco, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 775 rushing yards (DraftKings)
• It took until the second half of the season for Pacheco to earn the starting role, but he was the Chiefs' most efficient runner over the second half of the season and retains the starter's role heading into 2023.