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Jahnke: Best NFL Week 7 player prop bets

Foxborough, Massachusetts, USA; New England Patriots wide receiver Jakobi Meyers (16) runs with the ball against the Miami Dolphins during the first half at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Fluharty-USA TODAY Sports

NFL Week 7 is here, which means it's time to take advantage of some high-value player props

My picks went 2-1 last week. Darrel Williams not only hit over 10.5 carries but doubled that mark after taking control of Kansas City's backfield and running a lot late in a big victory. Robert Woods finished under 61.5 yards as expected, gaining only 31 yards as the Rams ran more than they passed in another blowout victory. The lone miss was that D.J. Moore only caught five passes, which missed the 6.5 over. He dropped three passes, which is the same number he had in his previous 14 games combined. My record now stands at 6-6 on the season.

Leverage PFF's player props tool to find the most valuable bets to make in Week 7.


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WR Jakobi Meyers, New England Patriots: Over 5.5 receptions (+123)

Meyers hasn’t hit over 5.5 receptions in either of the last two weeks, but there is reason to believe he can do it this week against the New York Jets.

The New York defense hasn’t been great this season, but its one strength has been the pass rush. Its 76.1 PFF pass-rush grade ranks eighth-best in the NFL. Meyers has been a security blanket whenever Mac Jones has been under pressure, as his threat rate goes from 21.9% without pressure to 26.4% with pressure.

New York runs man defense at a higher than average rate, as its 32.2% man defense usage ranks ninth-most in the NFL. This is another situation where Meyers has been targeted more often, as he has a 20.4% threat rate against zone coverages and 30.1% against man.

All of this should lead to more targets if New England is airing it out often. The Patriots blew out the Jets earlier in the year, but this matchup should be closer.

Thirteen players Patriots defenders either aren't participating in practice or have been limited. This should help keep the Jets in this game longer, causing the Patriots to pass more later in the game than they did in Week 2. The Jets are coming off a bye week, so they had more time to prepare this game, which should also make it closer, giving Meyers a great opportunity to go over his reception prop.

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