My picks went 0-3 last week, no thanks to some very unfortunate game scripts. First, the New York Jets ran just eight offensive plays over their first three drives and were down 0-17 by their fourth, so they had to abandon the run before they even had a chance to establish it. Then, in the Sunday night game, Buffalo’s unexpected dominance over Kansas City allowed them to run more than pass, hurting both of my Bills prop bets. My record now stands at 4-5 on the season.
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RB Darrel Williams, Kansas City Chiefs: Over 10.5 carries (-110)
Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been placed on injured reserve, elevating Williams to the role of lead back. The former undrafted free agent played 24 of a possible 29 snaps after Edwards-Helaire went down, and he is now the only back on the active roster with more than four carries this season.
Veteran Jerick McKinnon will serve as Williams' backup. And the positive there is that if the Chiefs need to limit their new starter, McKinnon is better suited to take some of the work in the passing game rather than the running game. We can expect McKinnon to get two or three carries to keep the defense honest, but Williams should handle the rest of the work.
Kansas City has run at least 13 times in every game this season. Going back to last season, they’ve run at least 14 times in every win and at least 17 times in every win by more than one score.
The Chiefs are heavy favorites against the Washington Football Team. They have run 42.4% of the time when they’ve had a lead, and this game script should lead Williams to double-digit carries at least.
WR D.J. Moore, Carolina Panthers: Over 6.5 receptions (+112)