Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry only continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to these single-game opportunities.
Our prime-time record stands at 34-41 for +2.74 units through five weeks. Leverage PFF's predictive betting models and player props tools to identify the best betting opportunities in the Indianapolis Colts–Baltimore Ravens Week 5 Monday Night Football matchup.
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PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications help evaluate betting opportunities.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Monday Night Football.
QB CARSON WENTZ: Over 9.5 rush yards (-105)
Quarterback rushing props often provide the best value for player props, and this Wentz over 9.5 rush yards is no exception.
The Colts quarterback has shown a definite willingness to run this season, recording four or more rushes in three of his four games. He also put up 60 total rushing yards in Week 1 and Week 2 combined.
While Wentz's 64.8 rush grade doesn't come close to the top of the QB leaderboard, this prop will come down to volume, not efficiency. If Wentz reaches that four- or five-rush threshold, the chance of cashing the over is very high.
And two very real factors should lead to a high Wentz rushing total in this game. The first is the game script, and the second is a high expected pressure rate courtesy of the Ravens' defensive line.
Given that the Colts are underdogs in this game, they will likely be playing a large portion — if not the majority — of this game from behind, meaning that Wentz will be dropping back at a higher rate throughout the game. And the Ravens have a 21% pass-rushing advantage over the Colts’ offensive line, according to PFF’s OL/DL Matchup Chart, meaning Wentz will likely be scrambling often to evade pressure from Baltimore pass-rushers.
PFF’s player prop tool gives Wentz a 57.1% chance to rush for 10 or more yards on Monday. Given both the expected game script and the matchup for Wentz, our model gives this prop a positive expected value at -105 odds.
QB LAMAR JACKSON: Over 10.5 carries (-105)
Jackson’s 43 carries, 281 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns are all the most he’s ever had through the first four weeks of any season of his career. And yes, that includes his MVP season in 2019.
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