Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
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As such, below is the only betting guide needed to unearth tons of expected value for each Sunday night contest throughout the 2021 NFL regular season.
We begin with a Week 4 contest between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the New England Patriots.
Related content for you: NFL Week 4 odds and best bets via Eric Eager and George Chahrouri
GAME LINES
Tom Brady is back in Foxborough on primetime and is facing one of the best defensive coaches while needing just 68 passing yards to surpass Drew Brees for the most in NFL history.
Week 4’s Sunday Night Football could be the best game of the season – from both a fan’s and a bettor’s perspective.
After opening as 5.5-point road favorites over the Patriots, the line has since moved to Buccaneers -7 — which, according to PFF Greenline, provides value for the Patriots at home. While it may be tempting to bet your entire bankroll on Brady and the defending Super Bowl champions to steamroll their way to victory with revenge on their minds, here are a few matchups to watch that point to the Patriots covering the spread.
The Patriots secondary has been solid this season – its 67.6 team-coverage grade ranks 10th in the NFL, and it's coming off a week where Jameis Winston passed for just 128 yards. Facing Brady (91.5 passing grade) and an explosive Buccaneers offense will be difficult, but Bill Belichick’s secondary is actually ranked higher through three weeks than the Rams, who held Brady to just one passing touchdown and 24 total points in Week 3.
The other player to watch for the Patriots is Brady’s successor, rookie QB Mac Jones. While the Alabama product’s 70.3 passing grade ranks just 22nd among all QBs, the 15th overall pick and current betting favorite for the NFL's Offensive Rookie of the Year has done a good job limiting turnover-worthy plays (four through three weeks, the same number as Patrick Mahomes and Dak Prescott) while his 4.8 big-time throw percentage ranks 17th in the NFL, one spot higher than Matthew Stafford. Not only does Jones’ performance this season bode well for his ability to tread water against Brady and the Bucs, but it also bodes well for the over 49.5-point total.
PFF Greenline also sees positive expected value on the over 49.5-point total – with a 53.4% cover probability, the over is a good bet in a game between two teams that are expected to go back forth all game. Both rank in the top 20 of PFF’s opponent-adjusted Massey rating (The Buccaneers rank first in the NFL).
PICK: Patriots +7 and OVER 49.5
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