Our prime-time picks were sitting handsomely at 26-26 for +10.17 units ahead of the Thursday Night Football clash between the Cincinnati Bengals and Jacksonville Jaguars. However, the Joe Burrow–Trevor Lawrence bloodbath took a hacksaw to that strong start, reducing our record to 26-32 for +3.38 units. You win some, you lose some.
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Props are priced for a player's median stat projection in a simple, over-or-under, two-sided market. For historical context, 53% of player props hit the under, regardless of the category, during the 2020 season.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet. Let’s dive into the best player props to bet ahead of Monday Night Football.
JUSTIN HERBERT: Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (+167)
The second-year quarterback orchestrated an upset victory over division rival Kansas City in Week 3, accounting for four touchdowns while recording zero turnover-worthy plays. The Chargers quarterback ranks sixth in PFF’s passing grade through the first three weeks of the season, even though he has only eclipsed this touchdown number once.
Las Vegas has exceeded expectations on both sides of the ball to start the year. Gruden's side is 11th in PFF's opponent-adjusted defensive grades, sitting 16 places better than the 27th-ranked Chargers, with their coverage unit ranking 21st league-wide.
The biggest highlight has been free-agent acquisition Casey Hayward Jr., as Trayvon Mullen has struggled to start the year. Herbert should pick apart this particular matchup and will easily go over his passing touchdown prop at a plus-price offering if this game turns into an offensive showcase.