Player props have officially entered the mainstream because they are the easiest way for new bettors to profit in sports betting. Over 800 player props are currently loaded into PFF’s prop tool, which doesn’t even model every single player prop offering currently available at all sportsbooks. Being able to quickly sift through the best and worst bets in an automated way is one of the easiest ways to cultivate sports betting success.
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Due to the sheer volume of listings, player props are often the easiest bets to beat consistently. Books have a difficult time keeping up with late-breaking news and digesting how the latest information impacts every player expected to be on the field.
This article's betting plays went 1-3 in Week 15 for -2.06 units. After a 2020 season that went 92-68 for +17.1 units, we are now 25-32 for -7.45 units in 2021 — a 116-97 record across the two seasons for +9.65 units won.
Using the PFF prop tool as a guide, let’s find the best values on the board for Sunday’s Week 16 main slate of NFL action.
QB JOE BURROW, CINCINNATI BENGALS: OVER 6.5 RUSHING YARDS (-118)
When things aren’t going well, it’s always best to go back to the tried and true. Burrow is quite possibly the king of my quarterback rushing props and offers 10.3% value to go over 6.5 rushing yards on Sunday.
Did we mention how much this game matters? Burrow definitely knows that it essentially decides the AFC North division, as there are only a few pesky teams standing in the winners' way. Burrow has scrambled 17 times this season and is coming off a season-high five-carry, 25-yard performance. Avoiding sacks is the No. 1 priority, as he's been sacked more than any QB not named Ryan Tannehill this season. If Burrow can alleviate pressure with his legs, picking up any sort of yardage will help him go over his rushing yardage prop number.
All of the Baltimore Ravens‘ injuries have impacted their pass rush, as they rank 21st in pressure rate and sit 19th in PFF's opponent-adjusted pass-rush grade. They are almost forced to blitz at a high rate and boast the sixth-highest blitz rate in the NFL. Everything is setting up for Burrow to easily eclipse his rushing yardage prop once again on Sunday.
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