Island games are the highlight of any NFL week for betting enthusiasts. As the industry continues to grow, some of the most discussed moments belong to single-game opportunities.
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As such, below is the only betting guide needed to unearth tons of expected value for each Sunday night contest throughout the 2021 NFL regular season.
Let’s dive into the Sunday night football Week 13 contest between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs.
PLAYER PROPS
One of the easiest transitions into sports betting is through player props, as fantasy applications are helpful for evaluating betting opportunities.
One way to consistently find defined edges is by utilizing PFF's player props tool. The ability to adjust both number and price means you are always certain of the expected value for each prop bet.
Let’s dive into the best player props to bet for Sunday Night Football.
QB PATRICK MAHOMES over 2.5 TDs (+150)
Mahomes has had a hot-and-cold season when it comes to his touchdown props, as he’s covered 2.5 touchdowns in five of 11 weeks while the juice has gone as high as +159 and as low as -153. Case in point, Mahomes threw for five touchdowns against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 10 but posted zero touchdowns against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 11.
However, this is a great matchup for Mahomes. The Broncos’ secondary has underperformed this season after entering the season as PFF’s No. 1 ranked secondary. Denver is 21st in team coverage grade, and the player to watch will be Tyreek Hill – PFF’s WR/CB matchup chart believes Hill has an excellent matchup advantage over Broncos corners Patrick Surtain (62.0 defensive grade), Ronald Darby (61.6) and Kyle Fuller (46.4). Additionally, the Broncos have allowed nine touchdowns on throws of 20+ yards this season — tied with the Washington Football Team for the most in the NFL.
According to PFF’s player props tool, Mahomes has a 52.5% chance to throw for at least three touchdowns, which means the long odds at +150 is incredible value for bettors to bet solo or in a same game parlay.
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