Conference champion bets get a good amount of publicity, but there is far less content out there on who will win the individual divisions in these conferences. In some cases, we can find more value in these markets than conference-wide futures.
Going into 2021, there are three bets we like in the college football divisional winner markets compared to our simulations. Some of these teams return a significant amount of production to units that were very efficient a season ago, and others benefit from what we perceive as inflated prices compared to other opponents in the division.
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|Odds implied probability||33%|
|PFF fair price||+117|
*Odds via DraftKings
Our biggest edge in the college football divisional markets is on the Trojans this season. USC is aiming to repeat as the Pac-12 South champion in 2021 after completing a 5-0 shortened regular season a year ago. As it stands right now, USC, Arizona State and Utah all have identical +200 prices to win the division, but we would have fair prices actually at +335 for Utah and +400 for the Sun Devils.