College Football Betting 2021: Best last-minute college football bets ahead of Week 4 | NFL and NCAA Betting Picks | PFF

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College Football Betting 2021: Best last-minute college football bets ahead of Week 4

Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Notre Dame Fighting Irish quarterback Jack Coan (17) runs with the ball during the second quarter against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Melina Myers-USA TODAY Sports

Week 4 is light in terms of marquee matchups, but there are several intriguing games down the board for many of the lesser-known teams. From a betting perspective, some sides still look enticing, and a few team totals stick out, too.

Check out my articles from earlier in the week on spreads and totals for some additional value, and always make sure to use PFF Greenline to aid your college football betting every week.


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Notre Dame Fighting Irish +6.5 vs. Wisconsin Badgers

Projection: Notre Dame +4.9

Points should be at a premium here, considering the total of 46.5, and this Wisconsin offense still has a lot to prove after two games. The passing game averaged just 4.7 yards per attempt against Penn State and then attempted only 20 passes for 166 yards against a terrible Eastern Michigan defense last week. To date, this is how Graham Mertz and this Wisconsin passing attack have ranked relative to the rest of the nation:

EPA/Pass PFF Passing Grade Turnover-Worthy Pass Rate Yards Per Attempt Deep Passing Rate
113 102 127 110 126

The aggressiveness hasn’t been there at all, and neither has the efficiency. The offensive line has struggled, too, which is extremely rare for Wisconsin, and the unit graded out at just 37.8 against Penn State after allowing 14 pressures. Although Notre Dame has played some weaker offensive lines early on, it should be able to get to Mertz here, as its pressure rate of 41.4% ranks 16th nationally.

Notre Dame’s offense hasn’t been incredible, either, but it has performed better than Wisconsin’s to date. The Irish pass game ranks 37th in terms of grading, which will be important because the offense has struggled to get anything going on the ground. Penn State managed to hit five explosive passes against the Badgers in its Week 1 win, and Notre Dame will be looking for similar results. Look out for tight end Michael Mayer, who opened the season with nine catches, four explosive gains and 120 receiving yards against Florida State.

Click here for PFF Greenline’s cover probabilities for side, total and moneyline.

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