After highlighting my biggest edges on Week 4 college football spreads, it’s now time for the totals.
Under bettors cleaned up in Week 1, but that has quickly regressed to the mean in the following weeks. Personally, I’ve been treading lightly with totals early on, but I see much more value on the board this week than in any of the previous three. I’ll highlight my biggest edges here compared to my projections, but always make sure to check out PFF Greenline first when looking for value.
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Liberty Flames @ Syracuse Orange UNDER 52.5
Projection: 48.8
Although Liberty fields a potent offense, it still does a good job managing possessions in games. The Flames averaged 11.5 drives per game in 2020, tying for the 15th-lowest mark in the nation, and that has continued this season, with Liberty currently tied for seventh-fewest possessions per game.
This was put on display in Liberty’s toughest test of the season to date, as the Flames limited possessions to just nine for both teams in a 21-13 victory over Troy in Week 2. Part of my model is projecting possessions for each team, and my projections for total possessions here are about one drive less than the national average, which is one reason why I see an edge.
There’s also the Syracuse offense, which still has a lot to prove despite solid performances against Ohio and Albany early on. Against Rutgers, the one decent defense it played, Syracuse had a laughable -0.368 expected points added per play mark and a 29% success rate. Only Kansas produced a worse offensive grade than Syracuse in the Power Five last season, and there isn’t a reason to expect much of a jump forward as the Orange head into the meat of their schedule.
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LSU Tigers @ Mississippi State Bulldogs UNDER 56
Projection: 53.2
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