If you’re trying to find some bets to root for during college football‘s conference championship weekend, look no further. This week presents a unique challenge due to the small slate of games, and finding edges so late in the process is very challenging in a market as efficient as full-game college football sides and totals.
Because of that, we’ll be going a different route in this edition of the weekly last-minute college football bets article, focusing on player props for this weekend. There isn’t nearly as much liquidity in prop markets as there is in the main college football market, so let’s try to exploit some soft lines here where the competition is less fierce.
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Editor's Note: Lines via PrizePicks
SEC: Georgia Bulldogs vs. Alabama Crimson Tide
Pick: WR John Metchie III, Alabama — Over 5.5 Receptions
Betting player prop overs against this Georgia defense hasn't exactly been a profitable endeavor this season, but I’m not sure we’re giving Metchie enough credit with this line. He has been a reception funnel in the Alabama passing game, hauling in 30% of the team’s passing completions for an average of 7.5 catches per game. Fellow receiver Jameson Williams is the headliner of this group and rightfully a Biletnikoff Award finalist due to his ridiculous explosiveness, but it’s been Metchie who has handled the bulk of the targets and catches.
Alabama Target Share
|John Metchie III||29.7%|
|Brian Robinson Jr.||7.5%|
Metchie also makes the most of those targets, as his 73.2% catch rate ranks eighth among receivers with at least 100 targets. He’s surpassed this total in 10 of his 12 games, with his lowest reception total of the entire season being three against Ole Miss.