Four games still present betting value in the late stages ahead of Week 12 of the 2021 college football season. These contests have the most value compared to my model’s projections, and PFF Greenline agrees with three of them.
Be sure to check out Greenline for additional value as you finalize your betting card for Week 12, as well as all of the other content from PFF’s loaded team of betting analysts. Let’s end this regular season on a high note.
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Projection: Virginia Tech +4.2
Virginia Tech's disappointing 2021 campaign led to the firing of head coach Justin Fuente this week. However, despite the shakeup at the top, the value on the Hokies here is too much for me to pass up.
The team's offensive line has been stout, ranks 17th in pass-blocking grade and 37th in run-blocking grade. On the other hand, the defensive front is one area where Miami has really struggled, grading outside the top 100 in the pass rush and run defense.
The Hokies have been able to move the ball on the ground, ranking 37th in rushing success rate, and should be able to exploit a Miami run defense that has been abused multiple times this season. Look for running back Raheem Blackshear to take advantage of Miami’s weak linebacker corps in the passing game as well, as his 84.0 receiving grade ranks fifth in the nation among running backs with at least 25 targets.
Miami's running game isn't much to write home about, which is good news for a Virginia Tech defense whose weakness has been the ground game. The Hokies have been solid in coverage and rushing the passer, though, leading to a 33rd ranking in passing success rate allowed and a 19th ranking in pressure rate.
Despite the deficiencies in the ground game, Miami's passing game still ranks just 72nd in yards per attempt. Quarterback Tyler Van Dyke has shown some flashes after taking over for the injured D’Eriq King, but his 70.5 passing grade ranks just 78th, with his 66.5% adjusted completion percentage sitting at 108th.
The Hokies are no juggernaut by any means, but I have a hard time seeing Miami covering a 7.5-point spread here with how these teams match up.
Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+4.5) @ Clemson Tigers
Projection: Wake Forest +0.5
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