It’s harder to find betting value later on in the week due to the efficiency of the market, but I do see some value left on the board compared to my projections. There are four that I have my eye on, including two matchups involving teams ranked in the top 10, a road favorite in Conference USA and a team total in the Big 12.
If you’re looking for more value as you fill out your college football betting card going into Week 11, you won’t find anything better than PFF Greenline, which includes projections for sides and totals and can be sorted by the biggest edges.
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Projection: Michigan -3.9
Michigan has exceeded all expectations in 2021, and a win here would likely lock in a season of double-digit wins after finishing 2-4 in a coronavirus-shortened 2020. The defense has enjoyed a major turnaround after last season and currently ranks third in the country in terms of grading and ninth in expected points added (EPA) per play allowed. Against the run, the Wolverines are a top-five unit in grade and yards before contact per attempt. They should be able to stifle a Penn State rushing game that ranks outside the top 100 in EPA per carry and success rate.
The pass defense has also been very solid, thanks in large part to an elite pass rush, as the Wolverines currently rank 12th in yards allowed per coverage snap. Edge defender Aidan Hutchinson has a case for the best defender in college football, as his 93.6 overall grade leads the nation among defenders, with David Ojabo on the other side of the line ranking 15th overall in pass-rushing grade. Penn State has some weapons in the passing game, but this unit should do just fine against an offense that ranks 91st in yards per pass attempt and 61st in pass-blocking grade.
On offense, Michigan has ridden a strong ground game to ranking ninth in points per drive. Running back Blake Corum is questionable for this contest but has been incredibly valuable for this offense, ranking fourth in rushing grade and fifth in missed tackles forced per attempt among running backs with at least 100 carries. However, fellow running back Hassan Haskins has actually taken more carries than Corum on the year and ranks just slightly behind him with an 88.3 rushing grade. Penn State’s pass defense has been elite but has graded out at 94th against the run, which the Wolverines should definitely be able to capitalize on.
Penn State does have the home-field advantage here, but Michigan is just the more complete team in this matchup.
Tennessee Volunteers (+20) vs. Georgia Bulldogs
Projection: Tennessee +17.6