- There is legitimate value on the Patriots at +4.5 and on the moneyline if Maye returns closer to his season-long creation baseline and the Seahawks offense slows against a deceptively disruptive New England defense.
- Drake Maye ranked third among quarterbacks in EPA per play against disruption this season, losing just 0.15 expected points per play in those situations. By comparison, quarterbacks facing the Seahawks averaged a 0.52 EPA loss per play when disrupted.
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Much of the discussion surrounding this Super Bowl has centered on how Drake Maye has performed in the postseason against a brutal run of defenses in the Chargers, Texans and Broncos. And, on paper, things don’t get any easier for the Patriots, who now face a Seahawks defense that ranks No. 1 in EPA per play allowed and sits atop the league in nearly every meaningful defensive metric.
Over the course of the season, only the Minnesota Vikings generated more disruption in the passing game — including perfect coverage snaps — than Seattle.
Disruption here refers to snaps in which the defense either plays perfectly — meaning no coverage or rush mistakes — or generates pressure quickly enough to knock the quarterback off his initial read. We refer to the latter as “disruption pressure.”
Much of the Seahawks’ defensive value is rooted in their ability to create chaos, placing the burden on opposing quarterbacks to create outside structure.
That brings us to Create Rate, a metric that offers a window into the specific skills required to beat the kind of disruption that has made Seattle’s defense so effective. Create Rate measures how often a quarterback produces a positive outcome in disruptive situations — either by delivering an accurate throw that effectively “throws a receiver open,” or by scrambling for positive expected value, outcomes over which the quarterback has the greatest individual control.
Over the course of the season, Maye has ranked top five in the NFL in his ability to turn broken plays into positive outcomes. Given that skill set, it’s no coincidence that he has also been one of the league’s most effective quarterbacks when facing disruption.
Maye ranked third among quarterbacks in EPA per play against disruption this season, losing just 0.15 expected points per play in those situations. By comparison, quarterbacks facing the Seahawks averaged a 0.52 EPA loss per play when disrupted.
While the past few games may shape perceptions of what to expect from Maye against elite defenses, it’s important not to over-index on that small sample. His underlying skill set — particularly his ability to create when structure breaks down — aligns well with the specific strengths of the Seahawks defense.
Notably, Maye’s two lowest Create Rate games of the season came recently, but Create Rate is less matchup-dependent than most quarterback metrics, suggesting regression back toward his season-long baseline rather than a continuation of those lows.
We can apply the same Create and Disruption framework to the other side of the ball as well. The Patriots defense isn’t far behind Seattle, ranking third in the NFL in perfect coverage rate and, by extension, overall disruption rate. And while Sam Darnold has been serviceable in his ability to create, his results when facing disruption have been closer to league average.
And with so much of his production coming on undisturbed plays, Darnold has the sixth-largest efficiency delta between disrupted and undisrupted dropbacks of any quarterback in the NFL. For a passer who faced the fifth-lowest rate of disruption during the regular season, a matchup with a quietly disruptive Patriots defense could slow this offense down — at least more than the market is currently accounting for.
Ultimately, the market has moved based on recent performance, which is, of course, meaningful information but not dispositive on its own. Understanding the matchup-specific interaction and broader context provides a more robust framework for evaluation, particularly when weighing a full season of data against a small, recent sample.
That recent stretch features Maye struggling against elite, disruptive defenses and Darnold thriving against units that failed to generate pressure or force him to create outside of structure.
While football outcomes are never driven by a single factor, viewing this matchup through the lens of disruption and creation provides a compelling case.
There is legitimate value on the Patriots at +4.5 and on the moneyline if Maye returns closer to his season-long creation baseline and the Seahawks offense slows against a deceptively disruptive New England defense.
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