AFC and NFC Championship Betting Guide: Data-driven angles

3DE244W New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) reacts after a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football…

3DE244W New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) reacts after a touchdown during the first half of an NFL football game against the Miami Dolphins, Sunday, Jan. 4, 2026, in Foxborough, Mass. (AP Photo/Greg M. Cooper)

  • Powered by meaningful data: The PFF First Touchdown Finder uses early-game EPA to isolate fast-starting teams and likely first scorers.
  • Alongside everything you need to know: Surface the players who see early and red-zone opportunities, paired with defensive resistance and best available prices.

Championship weekend brings the tightest spreads, the sharpest markets and the smallest margins for error. To help bettors navigate the AFC and NFC title games, PFF is leaning on its most advanced betting tools yet, including the new First Touchdown Finder and the PFF Player Prop Tool, to ground every angle in data rather than guesswork.

Across our conference championship coverage, we break down how early-game efficiency, player usage, matchup context and pricing come together to shape each market — from first touchdown scorers to passing, rushing and receiving props — using the same predictive models and premium data that power PFF’s betting ecosystem.

Introducing PFF’s First Touchdown Finder: A smarter way to attack first TD scorer markets
Introducing PFF’s First Touchdown Finder: A smarter way to attack first TD scorer markets

Quick Read

PFF’s First Touchdown Finder Report uses early-game efficiency, usage trends and red zone data to identify first touchdown scorer value — all in one customizable betting tool.

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Best first touchdown bets for the AFC and NFC championship games
Best first touchdown bets for the AFC and NFC championship games

Quick Read

The First Touchdown Finder is built similarly to the PFF Player Props tool, allowing users to filter by game, position, price, and more, while highlighting team-level early-scoring edges and player-level opportunities. You can read more about how the tool works in our full First Touchdown Finder breakdown, then follow along below as we use it to identify some of the best first touchdown bets for championship weekend.

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NFL Conference Championship Betting Notebook
NFL Conference Championship Betting Notebook

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Ben Linsey provides data-driven, contextual betting notes for both sides of the ball for each conference championship game.

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NFL Playoffs AFC Championship: Patriots-Broncos betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
NFL Playoffs AFC Championship: Patriots-Broncos betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

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Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs thrives against man coverage, which the Broncos use at a top-10 rate in the NFL.

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NFL Playoffs NFC Championship: Rams-Seahawks betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)
NFL Playoffs NFC Championship: Rams-Seahawks betting preview (odds, lines, best bets)

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The Seahawks tend to funnel targets to running backs and tight ends, giving Colby Parkinson a window to produce in this third iteration of Rams-Seahawks.

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AFC, NFC Championship Picks: Anytime touchdown bets
AFC, NFC Championship Picks: Anytime touchdown bets

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Anytime touchdown bets are among the most popular markets in football, but they are often driven more by guesswork than data. PFF’s new First Touchdown Finder is designed to change that, using early-game efficiency, player usage and matchup context to identify the most actionable scoring opportunities each week.

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AFC, NFC Championships: Same-game parlays to target
AFC, NFC Championships: Same-game parlays to target

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Jarrett Stidham steps into a Denver offense that leads the NFL in perfect block rate, a key factor given his history of outperforming expectations when protected in a pass-heavy game script. In a separate matchup, the Rams’ shift toward 11 personnel has elevated Jordan Whittington into a consistent slot role, setting him up for steady volume against a Seahawks defense that limits perimeter receivers but allows production over the middle.

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