• Mike Tomlin to win Coach of the Year +3000 at BetMGM
• Best Bet: Steelers to make the playoffs +350 at DraftKings
• The 2021 Pittsburgh Steelers made the playoffs for the second consecutive year, with a 9-7-1 mark that extended head coach Mike Tomlin’s streak of avoiding a losing season to an NFL-record 15 years. Nonetheless, the Steelers’ point differential was -55, which corresponds to a 7-10 fundamental record.
• For the first time since 2004, Pittsburgh will open the season without Ben Roethlisberger as the leader of the franchise. Following Roethlisberger's retirement, the Steelers are handing the keys over to Mitch Trubisky — who has had moments in the league but has largely been a disappointment — and eventually Kenny Pickett, the only quarterback taken in the first two rounds of April's draft. With some atrophy across the rest of the roster, how much of an upgrade these players are over a washed Big Ben is going to determine if the Steelers can compete in a tough AFC.
Current Power Ranking: 21st
Current SOS: 5th
|1||Sun, Sep 11||@ Cincinnati|
|2||Sun, Sep 18||vs New England|
|3||Thu, Sep 22||@ Cleveland|
|4||Sun, Oct 2||vs New York Jets|
|5||Sun, Oct 9||@ Buffalo|
|6||Sun, Oct 16||vs Tampa Bay|
|7||Sun, Oct 23||@ Miami|
|8||Sun, Oct 30||@ Philadelphia|
|10||Sun, Nov 13||vs New Orleans|
|11||Sun, Nov 20||vs Cincinnati|
|12||Mon, Nov 28||@ Indianapolis|
|13||Sun, Dec 4||@ Atlanta|
|14||Sun, Dec 11||vs Baltimore|
|15||Sun, Dec 18||@ Carolina|
|16||Sat, Dec 24||vs Las Vegas|
|17||Sat, Jan 1||@ Baltimore|
|18||Sat, Jan 8||vs Cleveland|
Win Total: 7.5 (+100), -120 under (54.5%)
We make the Steelers a 7.45-win team on average, going over the 7.5 win total 48.57% of the time (+106) and under the win total 51.43% of the time (-106), meaning there isn’t much value here on either side. If you think that Trubisky and Pickett will really struggle, and that a top-heavy team will not be able to withstand injuries, an alt under is the play for you.
Best Bet: Avoid
Make Playoffs: +350 yes, -450 no
Breakeven % yes: 22.2%
Breakeven % NO: 81.8%
We give the Steelers a 26.4% chance to make the playoffs, meaning a bet at 7/2 on the “yes” is a good play. At +350 the payoff is enough to consider it a long shot that will probably lose but has some value.
Best Bet: Pittsburgh to make the playoffs is a positive EV play. A $20 bet at MGM could return $90.
AFC North Title: +900
Breakeven %: 10%
We give the Steelers a 12.4% chance to win the AFC North, which does represent a value. They would need the Ravens and Bengals to fall off, but given the injury history of the former and the difficult schedule for the latter, it might be worth a sprinkle.
Best Bet: Small play on Steelers to win division +900. A $20 bet could return $200.
Super Bowl: +8000
Breakeven %: 1.2%
We give the Steelers a 0.6% chance of winning the Super Bowl, so at 80/1 there is no value here. Hard to see Trubisky or Pickett running the gauntlet of the AFC.
Best Bet: Avoid
Mike Tomlin +3000 to be Coach of the Year (3.2%)
I wrote about this market here, and Tomlin does fit into the contender category. His quarterback is very likely not going to be a 4-WAR guy, and expectations are low enough so that a 10- or 11-win season is going to go over by enough for him to be considered. This is probably the way to really long-shot bet Pittsburgh.
George Pickens +850 to be Offensive Rookie of the Year (10.5%)
Pickens might be the most impressive rookie during this year's preseason narrative cycle, and while everyone should be cynical about the meanings of these things, the people betting into this market are putting their money behind him, as he is the favorite on BetMGM. This is way too rich for my blood at this point, but it is very noteworthy to consider as another way to bet into the Steelers.
Best Bet: Tomlin to win Coach of the Year +3000. A $20 bet could return $620 at BetMGM.
Breakeven % is the rate a simulated outcome must occur for the bet to be positive EV.