Betting News & Analysis

NFL Week 2: Bet these Data-Driven Player Props

East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; Washington Football Team running back Antonio Gibson (24) celebrates his touchdown against the New York Giants during the second half at MetLife Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Vincent Carchietta-USA TODAY Sports

Bet Falcons K Younghoe Koo O 1.5 FGs made (+100 Betonline): He's hit over 1.5 FGM in his past 6 games and will be kicking in a dome on Sunday.

Bet Commanders RB Antonio Gibson anytime TD (-110 DraftKings): Only Texans & Jets have allowed more rush TDs than Lions (23) since start of 2021.

Bet Saints WR Michael Thomas O 56.5 rec yards (-115 DraftKings): Over this number in 7-of-9 meetings, lines up outside where Bucs struggle to cover.

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Estimated reading time: 3 mins


Player Props have one of the most popular markets offered in sportsbooks right now. Because of its similarity to fantasy football, something most bettors grew up playing, it’s easy to translate the thought process from fantasy football to player props. Here at PFF, you can utilize the Best Bets tab on the website to help sift through the most +EV props to bet on based on our model to help with your betting success. 


Play of the Week

Atlanta Falcons K Younghoe Koo OVER 1.5 FGs made @ Los Angeles Rams (+100 BetOnline)

Since the beginning of last year, the Rams defense has allowed 31 field goals to be made by the opposition — which is the 11th highest number in that time frame. In Week 1, the Rams allowed 0.175 Expected Points Added (EPA) per play, which was a bottom 5 number.

• The Falcons offense looked … good? Going up against the New Orleans Saints, who were projected to have one of the NFL’s best defenses, Atlanta had an offensive success rate of 51.4% (5th in NFL), but it averaged 0.003 EPA/play (17th). This means they did well moving the ball, stalling once they crossed midfield in high-leverage situations (Red Zone & 3rd down).

Koo has hit over 1.5 FGM in his last 6 games, and will be kicking in a dome on Sunday.

Washington Commanders RB Antonio Gibson anytime TD @ Detroit Lions (-110 @ Draftkings)

 

• Antonio Gibson may not have been that effective running the ball in 2021 (averaged 4.0 YPC), but he did score 10 touchdowns, which is our angle for this play. The Commanders only ran 3 plays inside the 10, with the only run play handled by Gibson.

Since the beginning of 2021, only the Houston Texans and New York Jets have allowed more rushing touchdowns than the Lions' 23. Last week, the Philadelphia Eagles ran for 216 yards and 3 TDs. We’re expecting this poor defensive performance to continue vs. a pretty solid Commanders O-line.

New Orleans Saints WR Michael Thomas OVER 56.5 receiving yards (-115 @ Draftkings) vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Michael Thomas started slow but finished with 57 receiving yards last week and has went over this number in seven of nine meetings with the Bucs. The past two games he’s actually went under, but that was in 2020 when he was hurt.

• As seen in the graphic, teams pass vs the Bucs the most over expected because of how good their run game is. This helps our Thomas over play as the Saints will likely be dropping back to pass upwards of 40+ times Sunday.

• The Bucs also allowed 1179 yards to receivers that lined up outside in 2021, which was the 11th most in the league. With Jarvis Landry manning the slot, Thomas will be lining up on the outside and should be able to get enough yards to hit this over.

San Francisco 49ers RB Jeff Wilson Jr. OVER 8.5 receiving yards  vs. Seattle Seahawks (-120 @ Draftkings)

• With no Elijah Mitchell to take touches away from him, Wilson should be in line for a heavy workload. He can easily get 9 yards in one screen pass, and with George Kittle not practicing, that adds to the open targets due to injuries.

No team has allowed more receiving yards to running backs since 2021 than the Seahawks (1125 receiving yards allowed). Bobby Wagner left in the offseason, and their best safety Jamal Adams got hurt last week. Javonte Williams and Melvin Gordon combined for 13 catches for 79 yards. They also just transitioned to playing more 2-high this offseason, which takes away the deep ball and forces offenses to checkdown and take the underneath stuff, which shouldn’t be an issue.

• Game script shouldn’t be an issue as well. PFF Greenline sees value on the Seahawks, so if they keep it close, the 49ers should be passing at least 35-40 times this game.


Season Record and last week recap: 1-3 (-2.2 units)

We were a little unlucky in Week 1, when we hit our bet of the week (Mahomes O 2.5 passing TDs) but lost the other three straight bets. Keenan Allen had 4 receptions in the first half, then left with a hamstring injury — which wasn’t ideal, especially since his prop was very juiced. 

 

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