• Bet Seahawks TE Noah Fant U 2.5 receptions (+130 BetMGM): Niners were NFL's only team not to allow catch to tight end Week 1; Fant in TE timeshare (20 total routes).
• Bet Cardinals +5.5 at Raiders (-110 BetMGM): Line movement of nearly field goal for Vegas makes no sense.
• Bet Falcons PK Younghoe Koo O 1.5 FGM vs. Rams (+115 BetMGM): Atlanta had an offensive success rate of 51.4% (5th in NFL), but it averaged 0.003 EPA/play (17th).
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Estimated reading time: 2 mins
PFF's Best Bets for the late-afternoon slate in NFL Week 2:
Eric Eager: Arizona Cardinals +5.5 at Las Vegas Raiders (-110 BetMGM)
• The lookahead line for this game was around a field goal, and while last week was extremely disappointing for the Cardinals, the Raiders hanging around in Los Angeles against the Chargers wasn't exactly due to their own abilities – as they struggled to protect quarterback Derek Carr and turned the ball over numerous times. Furthermore, as we saw Thursday night, the Chargers aren't exactly the best at protecting multiple-score leads. Thus, while I do think the Raiders are the better team, the line movement in their direction makes little sense. Back Zona here.
Nathan Jahnke: Seattle Seahawks TE Noah Fant U 2.5 receptions vs. San Francisco 49ers (+130 BetMGM)
• The Seahawks used a three-man rotation at tight end through the preseason and Week 1, and all three players played between 20-37 offensive snaps. Fant only ran a route on 20 of Seattle's 35 pass plays and was targeted four times, leading to three completions for 16 yards. He now faces a 49ers team that only allowed 65 receptions to tight ends all of last season, the fifth-lowest among teams, and were the only team not to allow a catch to a tight end in Week 1.
Martyn Carlisle: Houston Texans @ Denver Broncos U 45.5 (-110 BetMGM)
Arjun Menon: Falcons PK Younghoe Koo O 1.5 FGM (+100 BetOnline)
• The Falcons offense looked … good? Going up against the New Orleans Saints, who were projected to have one of the NFL’s best defenses, Atlanta had an offensive success rate of 51.4% (5th in NFL), but it averaged 0.003 EPA/play (17th). This means they did well moving the ball, stalling once they crossed midfield in high-leverage situations (Red Zone & 3rd down).
Judah Fortgang: Cardinals alt lines at Raiders (-2.5 / -5.5, +210 BetMGM / +350 FD)
• Fundamentally, these teams are on about the same level, which alone creates value in a game with a 5.5-point spread. In what should be a back-and-forth, high-scoring affair – where spread points matter less — we like Arizona on the alternate line. Between Kyler Murray's propensity to take over games, and with the pass rush impacting Vegas more than Arizona, there are more angles for Arizona to pull away, and we can get this outcome at extremely juicy odds.
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