NFL Week 15 Playoff Picture: Hopes hang in the balance for Indianapolis Colts, Pittsburgh Steelers

• The Colts need a Week 15 win: The Indianapolis Colts have a 66% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 15 win against the Pittsburgh Steelers, but their chances will fall to just 20% with a loss.

• The Ravens are out in front in a loaded AFC: The Baltimore Ravens have a 61% chance of locking up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, according to PFF's model.

• Dig into the numbers for yourself: PFF's Premium Stats is the most in-depth collection of NFL and NCAA player performance data. Subscribe today to get full access!

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The current situation ahead of Week 15

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Baltimore Ravens (10-3)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (9-4)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-5)
4. Miami Dolphins (9-4)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-5)
6. Cleveland Browns (7-6)
7. Indianapolis Colts (7-6)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. San Francisco 49ers (10-3)
2. Dallas Cowboys (10-3)
3. Detroit Lions (9-4)
4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-7)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (10-3)
6. Minnesota Vikings (7-6)
7. Green Bay Packers (6-7)

If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Colts) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Packers) to the playoffs.

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 15

Playoff scenarios

Playoff matchups

As of now, the following wild-card matchups are most likely to happen:

• Vikings or Packers at Lions (36% and 29%, respectively)

• Cowboys at Buccaneers, Saints or Falcons (25%, 20% and 20%, respectively)

• Browns at Jaguars (20%)

Looking further ahead, these are the most likely matchups to happen at any point in the playoffs:

• Cowboys-49ers (39%)
• Eagles-49ers (38%)
• Chiefs-Ravens (38%)
• Vikings-Lions  (37%)
• Cowboys-Eagles (35%)
• Dolphins-Chiefs (35%)
• Dolphins-Ravens (33%)
• Packers-Lions (30%

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chances to pull it off, even though the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances took a major hit with Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury:

Looking ahead to draft season

There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.

The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:

• Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 93%
• New England Patriots: 4%
• Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 2%

Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:

• Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 100%
• New England Patriots: 93%
• Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 88%
• Washington Commanders: 70%
• Los Angeles Chargers: 32%
• New York Giants: 29%
• Las Vegas Raiders: 22%
• Chicago Bears (own pick): 20%
• Tennessee Titans: 15%
• New York Jets: 14%