NFL Week 14 Betting: Darius Butler's favorite bets of the week

Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott (4) throws a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs during the first half at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports

After a dominant 4-0 performance in Week 13, featuring wins on both Thursday night and the weekend, I'm looking to keep the streak alive in Week 14. My current record sits at 21-19, and we'll try to improve that record even more this week.

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Every week, I look at who has the edge in these five categories: quarterback, defense, offensive talent, play in the trenches and coaching.

Let’s get to my favorite bets of NFL Week 14.

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Dallas Cowboys -4.5 over Washington Football Team 

This is a huge divisional matchup in the NFC East. As of right now, both teams control their playoff fate. Jerry Jones and Mike McCarthy have made this a big game for offensive coordinator Kellen Moore and quarterback Dak Prescott, who currently ranks fifth among quarterbacks (min. 50 dropbacks) in PFF passing grade (85.0).

Prescott and the rest of the Cowboys offense  — specifically the wide receivers — have to step it up and respond after the owner essentially called them out in the media this week.

Quarterback comparison
Metric Prescott Heinicke
PFF Grade 83.7 65.0
Passer Rating When Clean 121.1 109.4
Passer Rating Under Pressure 80.2 66.7
Big-Time Throw % 5.7% 2.9%
Turnover-Worthy Play % 2.4% 3.5%

The Cowboys' defensive front is finally back to full strength and will be a problem for Washington's offensive line. I expect the Cowboys offense to move the ball and put up points. If this becomes a two-score game, it spells trouble for Taylor Heinicke and the rest of the Football Team.

Washington's offense excels at controlling the line of scrimmage and running the ball at will. However, I believe the Cowboys defense will be up to the task this week, which is why Dallas will win this game decisively and put the NFC back on notice.

New Orleans Saints (-5.5) over New York Jets 

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Taysom Hill should have a better outing on Sunday against the Jets than he did against Dallas last week. I expect Sean Payton to adjust the pffensive game plan, which will give Hill a better chance to succeed. Alvin Kamara‘s return to the lineup should pay huge dividends. I expect the Saints offense to have a successful outing.

The Saints defense ranks second in PFF grade (76.6), and it passes my eye test with flying colors! I love watching this Saints defense play ball. They are one of the best-coached units in the NFL, and I fully expect Zach Wilson, who ranks 40th among quarterbacks in PFF passing grade (56.1; min. 50 dropbacks) to have a rough outing.

Seattle Seahawks (-8.5) over Houston Texans 

Russell Wilson finally looked somewhat like himself last wee, though he is not quite Mr. Unlimited just yet. It seems like he is finding his groove, and what better team to be facing than the 2-10 Texans?

If Tyrod Taylor was starting, this game wouldn't be one of my favorite bets of the weekend. Rookie Davis Mills, who has shown flashes, doesn’t put an ounce of fear into any defensive player or coach.

Even with Seattle’s struggle this year, I can trust Pete Carroll, Wilson and Bobby Wagner. I have no idea what’s going on with Texans. I believe the Seahawks win by a couple of scores.

Dog of the day: Atlanta Falcons (ML) over the Carolina Panthers

The Falcons have the clear quarterback advantage in this matchup. Matt Ryan has had a good season, especially given that he has been missing his No. 1 wide receiver, Calvin Ridley, for most of the season. Ryan gets another weapon back this week, though, as tight end Hayden Hurst will return from injury.

The Panthers offense has major problems, starting at playcaller. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady was fired last week, so new offensive coordinator Jeff Nixon will be calling plays for the first time. Unfortunately, the issues don’t stop there, as Christian McCaffrey is done for the season while starting quarterback Cam Newton is coming off of his worst NFL outing.

This is a must-win game for both teams with playoff chances on the line, but I think the Falcons are more prepared to come out with a much-needed victory.

PFF's new Best Bets Tool allows you to take advantage of the best prop and game betting opportunities for each NFL slate during the 2021 season.

Darius Butler is a former NFL free safety. He was drafted by the New England Patriots in the second round of the 2009 NFL Draft. He has also played for the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts.

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