NFL News & Analysis

NFL Week 13 Playoff Picture: Denver Broncos' playoff hopes hinge on a game against Houston Texans

2T04JXX Denver Broncos quarterback Russell Wilson (3) throws a pass during the first half of an NFL football game against the Chicago Bears Sunday, Oct. 1, 2023, in Chicago. (AP Photo/Erin Hooley)

• Eagles out in front in the NFC: The Philadelphia Eagles have an 81% chance of securing the top seed in the NFC, according to PFF's model.

• A massive week for the Broncos: The Denver Broncos have a 64% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 13 win against the Houston Texans, but their chances will fall to just 21% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The playoff picture ahead of Week 13

Current AFC playoff standings
  1. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
  4. Miami Dolphins (8-3)
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
  6. Cleveland Browns (7-4)
  7. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)
Current NFC playoff standings
  1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
  2. San Francisco 49ers (8-3)
  3. Detroit Lions (8-3)
  4. Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
  5. Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
  6. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
  7. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)

If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Colts) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Falcons) to the playoffs.

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The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.




Team Chances with win Chances with loss Leverage
Denver Broncos 64% 21% 43%
Seattle Seahawks 74% 37% 37%
Houston Texans 54% 18% 36%
Indianapolis Colts 58% 25% 33%
New Orleans Saints 67% 35% 32%
Green Bay Packers 63% 37% 26%

Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

Kansas City Chiefs 40% Philadelphia Eagles 81%
Baltimore Ravens 28% San Francisco 49ers 14%
Jacksonville Jaguars 15% Dallas Cowboys 4%
Miami Dolphins 13% Detroit Lions 1%
Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chances to pull it off, even though the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances took a major hit with Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury:

North 53% 23%
East 0% 3%
South 10% 0%
West 1% 5%

Looking ahead to draft season

There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.

PFF's customizable mock draft simulator gives you the opportunity to be the GM for any team in the 2024 NFL Draft — click here to start drafting!
The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:
Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:

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