NFL Week 13 Playoff Picture: Denver Broncos' playoff hopes hinge on a game against Houston Texans

• Eagles out in front in the NFC: The Philadelphia Eagles have an 81% chance of securing the top seed in the NFC, according to PFF's model.

• A massive week for the Broncos: The Denver Broncos have a 64% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 13 win against the Houston Texans, but their chances will fall to just 21% with a loss.

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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

The playoff picture ahead of Week 13

Current AFC playoff standings

1. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
4. Miami Dolphins (8-3)
5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
6. Cleveland Browns (7-4)
7. Indianapolis Colts (6-5)

Current NFC playoff standings

1. Philadelphia Eagles (10-1)
2. San Francisco 49ers (8-3)
3. Detroit Lions (8-3)
4. Atlanta Falcons (5-6)
5. Dallas Cowboys (8-3)
6. Seattle Seahawks (6-5)
7. Minnesota Vikings (6-6)

If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Colts) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Falcons) to the playoffs.

The projections

Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.

The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.

The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.

AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES

TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 13

Playoff scenarios

Home-field advantage

Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.

Two wild cards for the same division

With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.

As of now, the AFC North has the best chances to pull it off, even though the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances took a major hit with Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury:

Looking ahead to draft season

There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.

The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:

• Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 60%
• Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 28%
• New England Patriots: 11%

Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:

• Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 98%
• Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 90%
• New England Patriots: 85%
• New York Giants: 43%
• Chicago Bears (own pick): 36%
• Washington Commanders: 49%
• Tennessee Titans: 17%
• Los Angeles Chargers: 15%
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 14%
• New York Jets: 12%