• Eagles out in front in the NFC: The Philadelphia Eagles have a 71% chance of securing the top seed in the NFC, according to PFF's model.
• A massive week for the Steelers: The Pittsburgh Steelers have a 76% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 12 win against the Joe Burrow-less Cincinnati Bengals, but their chances will fall to just 39% with a loss.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The situation ahead of Week 12
Current AFC playoff standings
- Baltimore Ravens (8-3)
- Kansas City Chiefs (7-3)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (7-3)
- Miami Dolphins (7-3)
- Cleveland Browns (7-3)
- Houston Texans (6-4)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
Current NFC playoff standings
- Philadelphia Eagles (9-1)
- Detroit Lions (8-2)
- San Francisco 49ers (7-3)
- New Orleans Saints (5-5)
- Dallas Cowboys (7-3)
- Seattle Seahawks (6-4)
- Minnesota Vikings (6-5)
If these standings held up, we would welcome three new AFC teams (Steelers, Browns and Texans) as well as two new NFC teams (Lions and Saints) to the playoffs.
The projections
Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.
The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.
The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.
AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES
NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES
TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 12
| Team | Chances with win | Chances with loss | Leverage |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 76% | 39% | 37% |
| New Orleans Saints | 80% | 44% | 36% |
| Houston Texans | 67% | 32% | 35% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 41% | 8% | 33% |
| Buffalo Bills | 61% | 29% | 32% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 89% | 59% | 30% |
Playoff scenarios
Home-field advantage
Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.
| AFC | % | NFC | % |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 39% | Philadelphia Eagles | 71% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 24% | San Francisco 49ers | 11% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 13% | Detroit Lions | 12% |
| Cleveland Browns | 10% | Dallas Cowboys | 5% |
Two wild cards for the same division
With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.
As of now, the AFC North has the best chances to pull it off, even though the Cincinnati Bengals’ chances took a major hit after Joe Burrow’s season-ending injury.
| AFC | NFC | |
| North | 52% | 12% |
| East | 1% | 3% |
| South | 10% | 2% |
| West | 1% | 4% |
Looking ahead to draft season
There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.
The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 49%
- Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 26%
- New England Patriots: 9%
- New York Giants: 6%
- Chicago Bears (own pick): 5%
Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 92%
- Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 81%
- New England Patriots: 65%
- New York Giants: 54%
- Chicago Bears (own pick): 53%
- Washington Commanders: 35%
- Tennessee Titans: 24%
- Atlanta Falcons: 22%
- Green Bay Packers: 14%
- Los Angeles Rams: 12%
- New York Jets: 10%
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