NFL Preseason 2026: Does a good preseason actually translate for rookies?

• Fewer rookies are extending a great preseason into meaningful regular-season contributions: Of the 45 rookies with an 80.0-plus overall preseason grade last year, just one reached a 70.0 grade in the regular season.

• Disappointing players thrived as first-year preseason players: Names like Jermaine Burton and Ennis Rakestraw suggest that little relationship exists between a great August and a strong rookie season, let alone a worthwhile career.

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The NFL made a triumphant return last week with the 2026 Hall of Fame Game, a 33-30 thriller between the Panthers and Cardinals to kickstart the preseason action. As the remaining 30 teams get set for their openers this weekend, excitement is in the air, even though formal football is still nearly a month away.

The annual onset of the league’s preseason brings about numerous constants, one of which is previously unknown players turning heads. That’s especially the case for undrafted or low-selected rookies attempting to claw their way onto rosters. At the same time, even those picked much earlier want to establish a strong tone for their careers with a promising preseason.

Of course, every new player wants to begin by dominating in August, but only a select few can actually make that come to fruition. Yet how much stock should we as a football collective actually put into an excellent preseason for a rookie? Not much.

Utilizing both overall PFF grade and snap counts in the preseason and regular season for first-year players allows us to understand not only how good a player was in the preseason, but how much that translates to both playing time and effectiveness later on. The sample of this data is the 2021-25 campaigns, which is the window in which the league reduced the number of preseason games (for all but two teams) from four to three contests.

Let’s start most recently with last preseason. Across all the August action, 45 total rookies posted at least an 80.0 overall PFF grade on either offense or defense while playing a minimum of 25 snaps. That was actually the highest number within this five-year sample by a wide margin, suggesting that rookies are flourishing more than ever in their first taste of professional football.

However, that initial dominance didn’t yield much of anything in the regular season. The only player out of that 45-name group to record a 70.0-plus overall PFF grade while playing a minimum of 250 snaps was Chargers safety R.J. Mickens, who burst onto the scene late as a sixth-round pick.

Likewise, only 23 of these 45 players even experienced 100 snaps during the regular season, which isn’t a high number in and of itself. Incredibly, neither of the two highest-graded preseason rookies on both sides of the ball — the Rams’ Willie Lampkin on offense and the Chargers’ Eric Rogers on defense — played even one snap in the regular season.

It can be easy to isolate 2025 as a potential aberrancy, but last preseason underscores a growing trend. Fewer and fewer rookies are converting flashy preseasons into top-notch regular-season campaigns.

What’s striking is that the proportion of rookies to reach both the snap and grade criteria from September through January is dominated by first-round players. For instance, names like Jayden Daniels, Micah Parsons, Bo Nix and Will Anderson Jr. registered great preseasons and rookie seasons, but all were really expected to do so given their top-12 draft slots.

Even other players occupying the list like Nick Herbig, Nate Hobbs and Dadrion Taylor-Demerson were typically no worse than a fourth-round selection, representing players who are already anticipated to contribute in some form as a first-year player. By comparison, seeing an undrafted free agent not only make a roster, but suddenly turn into a regular (and good) contributor is very rare.

As the 2025 preseason revealed, having a fruitful August stretch doesn’t guarantee much of anything in terms of real snap shares. Last year’s 51.1% rate of good preseason rookies earning at least 100 regular-season snaps was the highest since 2022, and the number peaked in the first year of this span.

A significant proportion of the rookies with an 80.0-plus preseason grade didn’t play whatsoever in their first NFL season, and a large chunk have rarely (if ever) seen the field throughout their careers. Similarly, many of these newbies only played a handful of snaps, and typically later in the season. A significant number of those who even appeared were players drafted in the earlier rounds as well.

Why aren’t these dominant preseason rookies even walking onto the field much in the fall and winter months? The most logical explanation is that they are typically buried on a depth chart if they even make a roster, needing injury or very poor performance from starters to even have a chance at playing. Trotting out an impressive rookie over an initial starter — especially a first-year player in whom the team didn’t invest a lot of capital — would probably be considered taboo for a lot of coaching staffs and front offices.

On the contrary, plenty of rookies have shined in the preseason as a means of catalyzing not only wonderful rookie campaigns, but also top-tier careers. These findings don’t necessarily mean that a good preseason holds no weight, especially for those picked near the top of the draft.

But by the same token, some rookie preseason standouts in recent seasons include Jermaine Burton, J.J. McCarthy, Trevor Penning and Ennis Rakestraw, all of whom have generally failed to develop as expected over their careers. Perusing the list of a year’s top preseason rookie performers on each side is more of a Remember him? exercise than the harbinger of a tremendous pro tenure.

To reiterate, this research definitely doesn’t nullify the preseason as a whole. It still holds legitimate value as a warm-up for players and coaches, especially as it allows first-year names to experience a faster and more physical game of football. By the same vein, a very good or bad preseason showing isn’t worth ignoring altogether.

However, this recent data serves as a strong indicator that rookie preseason darlings probably won’t experience the same success as the calendar turns to September — if those players are even lucky enough to play in a few games. In simpler terms, it’s better not to overreact to a great individual preseason, because it guarantees almost nothing.