• Chiefs out in front in the AFC: The Kansas City Chiefs have a 40% chance of securing the top seed in the AFC, according to PFF's model.
• A massive week for the Vikings: The Minnesota Vikings have a 70% chance of making the playoffs with a Week 10 win against the New Orleans Saints, but their chances will fall to just 41% with a loss.
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Estimated reading time: 5 minutes
The current situation ahead of Week 10
Current AFC playoff standings
- Kansas City Chiefs (7-2)
- Baltimore Ravens (7-2)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (6-2)
- Miami Dolphins (6-3)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (5-3)
- Cleveland Browns (5-3)
- Cincinnati Bengals (5-3)
Current NFC playoff standings
- Philadelphia Eagles (8-1)
- Detroit Lions (6-2)
- San Francisco 49ers (5-3)
- New Orleans Saints (5-4)
- Seattle Seahawks (5-3)
- Dallas Cowboys (5-3)
- Minnesota Vikings (5-4)
The projections
Naturally, it’s unlikely the playoff picture will remain constant over the remainder of the season. And that’s why it makes sense to look at the projected playoff picture — the estimated chances PFF gives each team to make the playoffs.
The following charts show the projected playoff chances for each team alongside the playoff leverage, i.e., how the playoff chances would change with a win or loss.
The logos show the current playoff chances. The points to the right of the logos indicate the chances after a win, and the points to the left indicate the chances after a loss.
AFC PLAYOFF CHANCES
NFC PLAYOFF CHANCES
TEAMS WITH THE MOST AT STAKE IN WEEK 10
| Team | Chances with win | Chances with loss | Leverage |
| Minnesota Vikings | 74% | 41% | 33% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 70% | 39% | 31% |
| Buffalo Bills | 60% | 29% | 31% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 82% | 52% | 30% |
| Cleveland Browns | 73% | 43% | 30% |
| New York Jets | 54% | 25% | 29% |
Playoff scenarios
Home-field advantage
Teams that hold the No. 1 seed in the conference have a huge advantage going into the playoffs. Here are the most likely teams to do that.
| AFC | % | NFC | % |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 40% | Philadelphia Eagles | 70% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 27% | Detroit Lions | 13% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 15% | San Francisco 49ers | 7% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6% | Dallas Cowboys | 5% |
Two wild cards for the same division
With the introduction of the seventh playoff seed, we've become accustomed to seeing three playoff teams from the same division. This has happened every year since 2020, when the playoffs were extended.
As of now, the AFC North has the best chance to pull it off, as all four teams of that division are positioned to make a playoff push come December. The AFC North features three playoff teams in the majority of our simulations. All four teams from that division make it to the playoffs 6% of the time. Here are the chances for each division to send three teams to the playoffs:
| AFC | NFC | |
| North | 56% | 9% |
| East | 5% | 15% |
| South | 3% | 2% |
| West | 2% | 3% |
Looking ahead to draft season
There are a few teams whose playoff chances are already bleak. But don’t fret — there is always the offseason and, most importantly, the draft.
The following teams have the biggest chance of picking first overall:
- Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 40%
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 28%
- Chicago Bears (own pick): 10%
- New York Giants: 10%
- New England Patriots: 5%
Here are the chances of selecting inside the top five:
- Arizona Cardinals (own pick): 88%
- Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 79%
- New York Giants: 66%
- Chicago Bears (own pick): 58%
- New England Patriots: 50%
- Los Angeles Rams: 26%
- Green Bay Packers: 20%
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 17%
- Washington Commanders: 15%
- Denver Broncos: 14%
- Arizona Cardinals (via Texans): 9%
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