Every free agency period has players who are overrated, as well as some who fly under-the-radar and prove to be a steal. Using PFF’s new free agency rankings page, we dive into some of those free agents who are likely going to be overlooked come March:
(Note: All projected contracts are provided by our friends at OverTheCap.)
Projected contract: Four years, $56.4 million ($31 million guaranteed)
Harris has gotten left out of the limelight playing alongside Harrison Smith — but not in PFF’s book, as he is the eighth-ranked free agent set to hit the open market. Harris was an undrafted free agent back in 2015 and saw limited action on the field in his first three seasons. He took on a bigger role in 2018 after some injuries in the Vikings' secondary and didn’t disappoint, ending up as the third highest-graded safety in the NFL. He remained the starter in 2019 and managed to build on that, recording the highest grade among safeties. Over the course of the past two years, Harris has combined for 17 pass breakups and interceptions while allowing only 21 catches. Even with his high projected contract, you’re obviously going to want a player of that magnitude on your team.
Projected contract: One year, $27 million (fully guaranteed)
Despite the absurd number of turnovers on Winston's resume, the public perception has underrated him a bit. Since coming into the league in 2015, Winston has unsurprisingly posted the second worst negatively graded play rate but did so while also owning the highest positively graded play rate. Winston’s decision making clearly needs some work, but the arm talent is there. On throws of 20-plus yards in 2019, Winston was 12th in PFF passing grade. The problem is that he drops down to 28th on throws shorter than that. Yes, he’s volatile, but his high-end is too good to ignore. He certainly won’t change if he has a poor supporting cast around him, so going to a team that owns a solid defense and isn't in rebuild mode — like the Chicago Bears — on a one-year deal sounds like the best path for Winston.