Fantasy: Possession Receiver Breakouts

Ever since Wes Welker moved to the Patriots in 2007 and exploded for 112 receptions, 1175 yards, and 8 TDs, fantasy players have been looking for the next possession receiver to blow up as a fantasy force. 
 
The obvious question is whether or not you can spot the next Welker by culling through the snap data. Is the Welker breakout a singular event, or can we expect other possession receivers to deliver significant value as draft sleepers?

 
 
 
 

To answer this question, I used the PFF Premium stats to develop the profile of a possession receiver for the 2008 and 2009 seasons.

• At least 70% catch rate
• At least 60% of pass patterns run within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage
• Targeted on at least 10% of total snaps
• Minimum 25 targets

 
Since we’re looking for breakout players, the sample is limited to players who are in their first five seasons in the league and haven’t put up a 1000 yard season or 200 point fantasy campaign.
 

2008 Season

 
2009 Season

In both 2008 and 2009, five players met the criteria and played the following season. (Anthony Gonzalez met the criteria in 2008 but was injured before receiving a target in 2009.) So how did they do the following season in fantasy?
 
A breakout fantasy season can be measured in a variety of different ways. We’ll use two criteria: 1) The player must score at least 150 fantasy points, 2) The player must increase his points over the previous season by at least 35%.
 

2009 Season

 
2010 Season

 
Davone Bess and Steve Smith had breakout seasons in 2009, while Mike Thomas and Danny Amendola enjoyed similar campaigns this past season. Five of the other six players saw an actual decrease in scoring.
 
Two possibilities for improving our odds are obvious when looking at the charts above. Three of the five players who saw decreases were not being drafted in the Top 100 receivers according to myfantasyleague.com. If we ignore those players, we’re left with a 57% breakout rate. Moreover, although Davone Bess did not technically have a second breakout in 2010, his 190 fantasy points came at a sharp discount to his WR75 ADP.
 
Even more impressively, if we then eliminate players who had negative PFF pass ratings, we are left with Bess (’08 and ’09), Smith, and Thomas. The only breakout player we lose with this filter is Danny Amendola.
 
Out of the ten players, only Steve Smith was a revelation in the Welker mode. After catching 71% of his targets on 503 snaps in 2008, he exploded for 271 fantasy points in 2009. The sample is still too small to know if this type of result is normal, but, if you could catch lightning in a bottle once every two years by drafting receivers who fit this profile, it would pay off handsomely.
 

Who looks good for 2011?

Four receivers fit our definition of a possession receiver. (Austin Collie technically meets the criteria but only because injury derailed what would have been a Top 10 fantasy season. He has already ascended to star status.) Of those four, three are being drafted in fantasy and possess a positive PFF pass rating.
 

2010 Season

Danny Amendola, who improved his pass rating into the positive in 2010, has the highest visibility of the group. Amendola just barely falls under the admittedly high 200 point ceiling. He finished as WR30 a year ago, which means he was a definite starter in PPR leagues that employ a three receiver format. Still, Amendola has a ton of work to do to reach the tier of receivers that includes Welker and a healthy Steve Smith.
 
In addition, skepticism remains high that Amendola will even maintain his current level. He’s in a similar situation to that of Bess a year ago. The Dolphins signed an elite possession receiver in Brandon Marshall who was supposed to block Bess’s route to a starting job and eat into his targets in the short passing game. Instead, Bess managed to increase his production slightly.
 
The Rams drafted two possession receivers in the draft and have Clayton and Avery returning from injury. Danario Alexander remains on the radar as a potential No. 1 receiver. The St. Louis receiving picture is overcrowded at best. As a result, drafters are taking a wait-and-see approach to the possibility of Amendola building on his 2010 campaign.
 
The other two players are being drafted as deep bench receivers in Draftmaster leagues, which means a breakout season from either of them would deliver significant value. Jordan Shipley and Earl Bennett finished as WR52 and WR57 a year ago. Shipley projects as the third receiver in a run-based offense but could end up with far more targets than either A.J. Green or Jerome Simpson even if he plays fewer snaps. Bennett fans will be sweating out the free agent signings. If the Bears add a starter to play opposite Johnny Knox, his value will take a hit.
 
On the other hand, heading into 2007 training camps it was Donte Stallworth, not Wes Welker, who was expected to play second fiddle to Randy Moss. A player who can consistently get open in the 0-9 yard area and catch 70% of the passes thrown to him will usually find a way to fantasy relevance. Amendola, Bennett, and Shipley should all be targeted in fantasy drafts at their current ADPs.