Fantasy: Maximize Your Draft Picks

We’re just about done with a round of preseason football, which means sportswriters, sports anchors, bloggers and fans will undoubtedly make a whole lot of noise about what will amount to nothing in a few more weeks.

More importantly though, we’re that much closer to your fantasy draft (hopefully it has not happened yet, because it would be terrible if your first round pick held out 10 weeks or blew out his knee in pre-season game three, the only one that really counts) and today we’ll look at dispelling some notions that most owners have about drafting quarterbacks, defenses and tight ends.

Avoid Drafting a QB2

You do not have an unlimited amount of roster spots – they are a scarce commodity and therefore are very valuable. Unless your league has a really deep bench, starts two quarterbacks or has a transaction wrinkle (like limiting the number of transactions per year), you need to maximize the value of your bench spots and draft picks. When you draft a second quarterback or decide to go quarterback-by-committee you are wasting (in most cases) a roster spot for a more scarce, and thus more valuable, running back or wide receiver.

I understand the idea behind going quarterback-by-committee – an owner doesn’t feel confident that the quarterback he/she drafted is consistent enough to start each week and needs a caddy (much like having a righty/lefty platoon at a position in baseball) to start some weeks when his QB1 has a bad match-up or is slumping.

My point is that you need two players to do the job of one player, which doesn’t make sense. Instead of drafting a player you don’t have confidence to start each week, draft one of the six stud quarterbacks (Aaron Rodgers, Mike Vick, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Tom Brady or Philip Rivers) and pick a quarterback off of waivers on his bye week. You could wait a few rounds and take Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Eli Manning (I’m bullish on Eli) or Ben Roethlisberger (maybe you would put Josh Freeman or Matt Ryan in this group too, but I don’t) and follow the same strategy as the above guys, just without the pedigree and a few points each week. Either way, your quarterback position is filled every week and you have rounds five (or nine if you drafted a quarterback from the second tier) through 13 for high upside running backs and wide receivers.

Just so we’re clear, it makes NO sense to draft a quarterback that you plan on using just for your starter’s bye week. The same player (or a very similar one as) you would have drafted in rounds nine – 11 will be available on waivers that week too. You’re much better off with Beanie Wells, Ryan Williams, Joseph Addai, Tim Hightower, Ryan Torain, Ryan Grant, Roy Williams, Mike Tolbert, Santana Moss, Lance Moore and the like as opposed to Joe Flacco, Jay Cutler, Matt Cassel, Tim Tebow, Kevin Kolb and others sitting on your bench aside from one week. The only exception I’d make to the “don’t draft two quarterbacks” rule is Matthew Stafford. The third-year quarterback possesses top seven quarterback upside and is worth drafting as your second quarterback after round eight. The caveat is you have to be ready to trade whoever was your starter or Stafford when he reaches that upside, to maximize the value on your roster.

Just Don’t Draft a TE2

Same principle as with quarterbacks; you can only play one a week and any replacement you draft in late rounds will be available as a free agent or on waivers. The first and second tier tight ends for me are Antonio Gates, Dallas Clark, Jermichael Finley, Jason Witten (Tier 1) and Owen Daniels, Jimmy Graham, Vernon Davis (Tier 2). Tight end isn’t as deep with star power, but you can wait until round eight or later and still draft Marcedes Lewis, Kellen Winslow Jr., Chris Cooley, Rob Gronkowski, Dustin Keller, Ben Watson, or Zach Miller, all of whom are capable fantasy tight ends.

Never Draft a Team Defense before Round 14

In general, defenses are unpredictable and there is very little difference between the top-scoring fantasy defense and the 12th best fantasy defense – and certainly not enough to account for a four (or more) round difference in draft position. In 2010, for example, the New England Patriots defense (best fantasy defense using ESPN scoring according to fftoday.com) outscored the Atlanta Falcons defense (12th best fantasy defense in 2010) by 36 points, which is just 2.2 points per week. In 2009, the top defense (New Orleans Saints) outscored the 12th-best defense by 3.4 points per game. In 2008, the Philadelphia Eagles (best fantasy defense) outscored the Miami Dolphins (12th best fantasy defense) by just 2.2 points per game. 2007 saw the San Diego Chargers (best fantasy defense) outscore the Dallas Cowboys (12th best fantasy defense) by 3.7 points per game.

Furthermore, the team defenses drafted are not likely to perform up to fantasy expectations because defensive touchdowns are wholly unpredictable, but have a tremendous impact on season and weekly scoring. As you can see from the charts below, the order in which team defenses are drafted never match up with the end of season rankings. In fact, in 2007 just five of 12 teams drafted in the top 12 of ADP finished in the top 12 of the end of the season ranks. In 2008 and 2009, it was six of 12 and 2010 it was seven of 12.

Instead of drafting the Pittsburgh Steelers defense in round 10 (or earlier), do yourself a favor and take Delone Carter, Tim Hightower, Darren Sproles, Malcolm Floyd, Mike Sims-Walker or Arrelious Benn, all of whom are being drafted shortly after the Steelers defense. Fantasy leagues are not won in the first few rounds of fantasy drafts – they're won when you hit on a late round draft pick. You just need to punch as many of those lottery tickets as you can.