Regardless of one's draft strategy for the 2021 NFL season, the most important concept is picking the correct players rather than positions. Easier said than done, right? That's why targeting players throughout 2021 fantasy football drafts who are values versus ADP is important.
Let's take a look at some of the high-flying wideouts who are dropping just a little too far in fantasy drafts. (Find a recent look at running backs to target in the middle rounds of 2021 fantasy drafts here.)
As a reminder, these players aren’t extremely draft-strategy specific. For those who get their hands on solid running backs in the first few rounds, these are the players to target who have top-12 to -24 upside in the middle rounds of 2021 fantasy drafts. (ADP is taken from FantasyPros aggregate .5-PPR scoring.)
Odell Beckham Jr., Cleveland Browns | ADP: 68.0
Many have been burned by Odell Beckham Jr. since his 2019 trade to the Cleveland Browns. He cost an early-second-round pick in 2019 and a mid-to late-third last year. Using PFF's Weekly Finishes tool, we can see he tallied only three top-12 finishes over those two seasons. Yikes.
But the good thing about fantasy football is that prior years — while chalk-full of useful information — aren't predictive of future performance.
Beckham’s success likely hinges on the play of quarterback Baker Mayfield, who has had highs and lows over the past two seasons. His best stretch of football to date was from Weeks 12-17 last season. In these six games, Baker averaged 286 passing yards and 1.8 passing touchdowns per game — an increase from 185 passing yards and 1.5 touchdowns prior to Week 12.
Still, Mayfield isn’t solely responsible for Beckham's struggles. Over the last two seasons, Beckham has posted a 14.0 aDOT and 1.81 YPRR, good for 79th and 75th percentile, respectively. But the former WR1 lost the ability to separate the way he did with the Giants due to injuries — he dealt with a hernia for most of the 2019 season and never really got back to form before ultimately tearing his ACL last season.
On the ACL front, news is positive for Beckham, who is eyeing a Week 1 debut. He was not on the PUP list at the start of camp and has been running routes with Mayfield since early July and running full-speed since mid-June.
Odell Beckham Jr. comeback szn? ⚡️
— PFF (@PFF) June 23, 2021
Beckham is currently being drafted just outside the WR24 range. If he can stay healthy, he'll easily beat his sixth-round draft cost.